My prediction on the 91st Annual Academy Awards

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The Oscar season of this year has been pretty wild and unpredictable. At first, “A Star is Born” seemed to be the front runner, but then “Green Book” and “Bohemian Rhapsody” stole the show at the Golden Globe Awards, and then “Black Panther” triumphed at the Screen Actors Guild Awards, and then “The Favourite” and “Roma” gained more momentum at the British Academy Film Awards, while “Vice” and “BlacKkKlansman” received considerable support as shown from their respective multiple nominations.

And there were also a number of troubles involved with Oscar during last several months. We rolled our eyes due to that misguided attempt to introduce a new category for popular blockbuster films, and then we shook our heads when it was decided that there would be no host for the ceremony after Kevin Hard stepped down because of his idiotic homophobic comment, and then many of us were quite outraged when it was announced that no less than four Oscar presentations would be done during commercials (Fortunately, this ridiculous decision was subsequently reversed thanks to the following protest from many people including some prominent figures in Hollywood).

In conclusion, this is probably the most chaotic Oscar season during the 2010s, and I guess anything may happen at the Dolby theater in LA on February 25th. Yes, I am still not so sure about many categories, but I give you my Oscar Prediction anyway, and let’s see how accurate my prediction is. I am ready to be surprised, you know.

Best Picture
Black Panther (2018): Kevin Feige
BlacKkKlansman (2018): Sean McKittrick, Jason Blum, Raymond Mansfield, Jordan Peele and Spike Lee
Bohemian Rhapsody (2018): Graham King
The Favourite (2018): Ceci Dempsey, Ed Guiney, Lee Magiday and Yorgos Lanthimos
Green Book (2018): Jim Burke, Charles B. Wessler, Brian Currie, Peter Farrelly and Nick Vallelonga
Roma (2018): Gabriela Rodríguez and Alfonso Cuarón
A Star Is Born (2018): Bill Gerber, Bradley Cooper and Lynette Howell Taylor
Vice (2018): Dede Gardner, Jeremy Kleiner, Adam McKay and Kevin J. Messick

Let’s do some elimination first. While “Bohemian Rhapsody” and “Vice” are not that good enough to win, there has not been enough buzz around “Black Panther”, “BlacKkKlansman”, “The Favourite”, and “A Star Is Born”, so I guess “Green Book” or “Roma” will win the award. Considering those controversies surrounding “Green Book”, “Roma” has more advantages in my opinion, but who knows?

Prediction: “Roma”
Preference: “Roma”

 

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Best Actor
Christian Bale – Vice (2018)
Bradley Cooper – A Star Is Born (2018)
Willem Dafoe – At Eternity’s Gate (2018)
Rami Malek – Bohemian Rhapsody (2018)
Viggo Mortensen – Green Book (2018)

After winning the Golden Globe, BAFTA, and SAG Award, Rami Malek has been a definite front runner while other nominees are far behind him.

Prediction: Rami Malek
Preference: Willem Dafoe

 

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Best Actress
Yalitza Aparicio – Roma (2018)
Glenn Close – The Wife (2017)
Olivia Colman – The Favourite (2018)
Lady Gaga – A Star Is Born (2018)
Melissa McCarthy – Can You Ever Forgive Me? (2018)

It is inarguable that Glenn Close will finally win an Oscar, but let’s not forget that other nominees are as terrific as her in their respective performances.

Prediction: Glenn Close
Preference: Olivia Colman

 

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Best Supporting Actor
Mahershala Ali – Green Book (2018)
Adam Driver – BlacKkKlansman (2018)
Sam Elliott – A Star Is Born (2018)
Richard E. Grant – Can You Ever Forgive Me? (2018)
Sam Rockwell – Vice (2018)

With his wins at the Golden Globe, SAG, BFCA and BAFTA award, Mahershala Ali has been the front runner here, but I will be delighted if Richard E. Grant wins instead for his entertaining performance in “Can You Ever Forgive Me?”

Prediction: Mahershala Ali
Preference: Richard E. Grant

 

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Best Supporting Actress
Amy Adams – Vice (2018)
Marina de Tavira – Roma (2018)
Regina King – If Beale Street Could Talk (2018)
Emma Stone – The Favourite (2018)
Rachel Weisz – The Favourite (2018)

While Emma Stone and Rachel Weisz are fantastic, there has not been much momentum for them, and the same thing can be said about Amy Adams and Marina de Tavira. Although she was snubbed by SAG and BAFTA, Regina King has steadily been the front runner in this category, and I think she will win in the end.

Prediction: Regina King
Preference: Regina King

 

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Best Director
Spike Lee – BlacKkKlansman (2018)
Paweł Pawlikowski – Cold War (2018)
Yorgos Lanthimos – The Favourite (2018)
Alfonso Cuarón – Roma (2018)
Adam McKay – Vice (2018)

After winning the Golden Globe, DGA, and BAFTA award, Alfonso Cuarón is bound to win another award.

Prediction: Alfonso Cuarón
Preference: Alfonso Cuarón

 

 

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Best Original Screenplay
The Favourite (2018): Deborah Davis and Tony McNamara
First Reformed (2017): Paul Schrader
Green Book (2018): Nick Vallelonga, Brian Currie and Peter Farrelly
Roma (2018): Alfonso Cuarón
Vice (2018): Adam McKay

“Green Book” may win, but I will go with “The Favourite”, which is the most entertaining one among the bunch.

Prediction: “The Favourite”
Preference: “The Favourite”

 
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Best Adapted Screenplay
The Ballad of Buster Scruggs (2018): Joel Coen & Ethan Coen
BlacKkKlansman (2018): Charlie Wachtel & David Rabinowitz and Kevin Willmott & Spike Lee
Can You Ever Forgive Me? (2018): Nicole Holofcener and Jeff Whitty
If Beale Street Could Talk (2018): Barry Jenkins
A Star Is Born (2018): Eric Roth, Bradley Cooper & Will Fetters

I’d love to see Spike Lee finally winning an Oscar, but my heart goes to Barry Jenkins’ “If Beale Street Could Talk”.

Prediction: “BlacKkKlansman”
Preference: “If Beale Street Could Talk”

 

 

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Best Film Editing
BlacKkKlansman (2018): Barry Alexander Brown
Bohemian Rhapsody (2018): John Ottman
The Favourite (2018): Yorgos Mavropsaridis
Green Book (2018): Patrick J. Don Vito
Vice (2018): Hank Corwin

Seriously, anything can happen here in this category….

Prediction: “Vice”
Preference: “The Favourite”

 
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Best Cinematography
Cold War (2018): Łukasz Żal
The Favourite (2018): Robbie Ryan
Never Look Away (2018): Caleb Deschanel
Roma (2018): Alfonso Cuarón
A Star Is Born (2018): Matthew Libatique

This is another category where Cuarón will win.

Prediction: “Roma”
Preference: “Roma”

 

 

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Best Original Score
Black Panther (2018): Ludwig Göransson
BlacKkKlansman (2018): Terence Blanchard
If Beale Street Could Talk (2018): Nicholas Britell
Isle of Dogs (2018): Alexandre Desplat
Mary Poppins Returns (2018): Marc Shaiman

I think Nicholas Britell will win for his somber but sensitive score for “If Beale Street Could Talk”.

Prediction: “If Beale Street Could Talk”
Preference: “Mary Poppins Returns”

 
Best Original Song
“All the Stars” from Black Panther (2018): Music by Mark Spears, Kendrick Lamar Duckworth and Anthony Tiffith; Lyrics by Kendrick Lamar Duckworth, Anthony Tiffith and Solána Rowe
“I’ll Fight” from RBG (2018): Music and Lyrics by Diane Warren
“The Place Where Lost Things Go” from Mary Poppins Returns (2018): Music by Marc Shaiman; Lyrics by Marc Shaiman and Scott Wittman
“Shallow” from A Star Is Born” (2018): Music and Lyrics by Lady Gaga, Mark Ronson, Anthony Rossomando and Andrew Wyatt
“When a Cowboy Trades His Spurs for Wings” from The Ballad of Buster Scruggs (2018): Music and Lyrics by David Rawlings and Gillian Welch

It has been clear from the beginning that Lady Gaga will win here….

Prediction: “Shallow”
Preference: “Shallow”

 
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Best Production Design
Black Panther (2018): Hannah Beachler and Jay Hart
The Favourite (2018): Fiona Crombie and Alice Felton
First Man (2018): Nathan Crowley and Kathy Lucas
Mary Poppins Returns (2018): John Myhre and Gordon Sim
Roma (2018): Eugenio Caballero and Bárbara Enríquez

Which one is something old and British?

Prediction: “The Favourite”
Preference: “The Favourite”

Best Costume Design
The Ballad of Buster Scruggs (2018): Mary Zophres
Black Panther (2018): Ruth E. Carter
The Favourite (2018): Sandy Powell
Mary Poppins Returns (2018): Sandy Powell
Mary Queen of Scots (2018): Alexandra Byrne

For the same reason, I will bet on “The Favourite”.

Prediction: “The Favourite”
Preference: “The Favourite”

 

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Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Border (2018): Göran Lundström and Pamela Goldammer
Mary Queen of Scots (2018): Jenny Shircore, Marc Pilcher and Jessica Brooks
Vice (2018): Greg Cannom, Kate Biscoe and Patricia Dehaney

“Vice” will certainly win here considering lots of makeups on its main cast members.

Prediction: “Vice”
Preference: “Border”

 

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Best Sound Editing
Black Panther (2018): Benjamin A. Burtt and Steve Boeddeker
Bohemian Rhapsody (2018): John Warhurst and Nina Hartstone
First Man (2018): Ai-Ling Lee and Mildred Iatrou Morgan
A Quiet Place (2018): Ethan Van der Ryn and Erik Aadahl
Roma (2018): Sergio Díaz and Skip Lievsay

I think “A Quiet Place” will win here, but watch out for “Bohemian Rhapsody”.

Prediction: “A Quiet Place”
Preference: “Roma”

 

Best Sound Mixing
Black Panther (2018): Steve Boeddeker, Brandon Proctor and Peter J. Devlin
Bohemian Rhapsody (2018): Paul Massey, Tim Cavagin and John Casali
First Man (2018): Jon Taylor, Frank A. Montaño, Ai-Ling Lee and Mary H. Ellis
Roma (2018): Skip Lievsay, Craig Henighan and José Antonio Garcia
A Star Is Born (2018): Tom Ozanich, Dean Zupancic, Jason Ruder and Steve A. Morrow

I initially predicted that “A Star Is Born” would win here, but now it seems the award will go to “Bohemian Rhapsody”.

Prediction: “Bohemian Rhapsody”
Preference: “Roma”

 

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Best Visual Effects
Avengers: Infinity War (2018): Dan DeLeeuw, Kelly Port, Russell Earl and Dan Sudick
Christopher Robin (2018): Christopher Lawrence, Michael Eames, Theo Jones and Chris Corbould
First Man (2018): Paul Lambert, Ian Hunter, Tristan Myles and J. D. Schwalm
Ready Player One (2018): Roger Guyett, Grady Cofer, Matthew E. Butler and David Shirk
Solo: A Star Wars Story (2018): Rob Bredow, Patrick Tubach, Neal Scanlan and Dominic Tuohy

I will make a safe bet on “Avengers: Infinity War”.

Prediction: “Avengers: Infinity War”.
Preference: “First Man”

 

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Best Animated Feature Film
Incredibles 2 (2018): Brad Bird, John Walker and Nicole Paradis Grindle
Isle of Dogs (2018): Wes Anderson, Scott Rudin, Steven Rales and Jeremy Dawson
Mirai (2018): Mamoru Hosoda and Yūichirō Saitō
Ralph Breaks the Internet (2018): Rich Moore, Phil Johnston and Clark Spencer
Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse (2018): Bob Persichetti, Peter Ramsey, Rodney Rothman, Phil Lord and Christopher Miller

“Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse” will definitely win the award.

Prediction: “Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse”.
Preference: “Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse”

 

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Best Foreign Language Film
Capernaum (Lebanon) (2018): Directed by Nadine Labaki
Cold War (Poland) (2018): Directed by Paweł Pawlikowski
Never Look Away (Germany) (2018): Directed by Florian Henckel von Donnersmarck
Roma (Mexico) (2018): Directed by Alfonso Cuarón
Shoplifters (Japan) (2018): Directed by Hirokazu Kore-eda

I saw all of them except “Never Look Away”, and “Roma” has been my No.1 choice.

Prediction: “Roma”
Preference: “Roma”

 

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Best Documentary – Feature
Free Solo (2018): Elizabeth Chai Vasarhelyi, Jimmy Chin, Evan Hayes and Shannon Dill
Hale County This Morning, This Evening (2018): RaMell Ross, Joslyn Barnes and Su Kim
Minding the Gap (2018): Bing Liu and Diane Quon
Of Fathers and Sons (2018): Talal Derki, Ansgar Frerich, Eva Kemme and Tobias N. Siebert
RBG (2018): Betsy West and Julie Cohen

I saw only “Free Solo”, “Minding the Gap”, and “RBG”. I think “Free Solo” will win considering its many breathtaking moments, but I will go with “Minding the Gap”.

Prediction: “Free Solo”
Preference: “Minding the Gap”

 

Best Documentary – Short Subject
Black Sheep (2018): Ed Perkins and Jonathan Chinn
End Game (2018): Rob Epstein and Jeffrey Friedman
Lifeboat (2018): Skye Fitzgerald and Bryn Mooser
A Night at The Garden (2017): Marshall Curry
Period. End of Sentence. (2018): Rayka Zehtabchi and Melissa Berton

I saw all of them except “Period. End of Sentence”, which will probably win considering what I heard from others.

Prediction: “Period. End of Sentence”
Preference: “Black Sheep”

 

Best Live Action Short Film
Detainment (2018): Vincent Lambe and Darren Mahon
Fauve (2018): Jérémy Comte and Maria Gracia Turgeon
Marguerite (2017): Marianne Farley and Marie-Hélène Panisset
Mother (2017): Rodrio Sorogoyen and María del Puy Alvarado
Skin (2018): Guy Nattiv and Jaime Ray Newman

Prediction: “Marguerite”

 

Best Animated Short Film
Animal Behaviour (2018): Alison Snowden and David Fine
Bao (2018): Domee Shi and Becky Neiman-Cobb
Late Afternoon (2017): Louise Bagnall and Nuria González Blanco
One Small Step (2018): Andrew Chesworth and Bobby Pontillas
Weekends (2017): Trevor Jimenez

Prediction: “Bao”

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