My prediction on the 90th Annual Academy Awards


Oscar season has been less predictable these days. When we thought “The Revenant” would won the Best Picture award in early 2016, “Spotlight” surprised us at the last minute. When we did not have much doubt on the victory of “La La Land” over “Moonlight” in early 2017, we had an unbelievably dramatic moment at the very end of the ceremony, thanks to that unfortunate confusion over the envelope containing the name of the Best Picture award winner.

The Best Picture Oscar race of this year is as unpredictable as previous two years. Around last August, we thought “Dunkirk” would win the award, but then there came “The Shape of Water”, and then there came “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”. In the meantime, “Get Out” has slowly gained momentum through its timely subject and widening word of mouth, and it might actually win the award even though it garnered only two other nominations besides its Best Picture and Best Director nomination.

Will “The Shape of Water” prevail as boosted by its 13 nominations? Will “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri” snatch the victory from its main competitor? And will “Get Out” surprise us in the end? I have no idea, but I am at least sure about many other categories although I have never been entirely correct in my prediction. Anyway, here is my 2018 Oscar prediction, and I hope I will get some surprise during the upcoming ceremony.

Best Motion Picture of the Year
Call Me by Your Name (2017): Peter Spears, Luca Guadagnino, Emilie Georges, Marco Morabito
Darkest Hour (2017): Tim Bevan, Eric Fellner, Lisa Bruce, Anthony McCarten, Douglas Urbanski
Dunkirk (2017): Emma Thomas, Christopher Nolan
Get Out (2017): Sean McKittrick, Jason Blum, Edward H. Hamm Jr., Jordan Peele
Lady Bird (2017): Scott Rudin, Eli Bush, Evelyn O’Neill
Phantom Thread (2017): JoAnne Sellar, Paul Thomas Anderson, Megan Ellison, Daniel Lupi
The Post (2017): Amy Pascal, Steven Spielberg, Kristie Macosko Krieger
The Shape of Water (2017): Guillermo del Toro, J. Miles Dale
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (2017): Graham Broadbent, Peter Czernin, Martin McDonagh

Considering its significant wins at the Golden Globe, SAG, and BAFTA award, “Three Billboard Outside Ebbing, Missouri” will win the award although it failed to get Best Director Oscar nomination. “The Shape of Water” might win the award, but its momentum is not enough in my trivial opinion, and the chance for “Get Out”, “Lady Bird”, and “Dunkirk” has been as slim as before. In case of “The Post”, “Call Me by Your Name”, “Darkest Hour”, and “Phantom Thread”, they have been more or less than bridemaids from the beginning, and it will be quite a shock if any of them actually wins the award.

Prediction: “Three Billboard Outside Ebbing, Missouri”
Preference: “Dunkirk”


Best Performance by an Actor in a Leading Role
Timothée Chalamet – Call Me by Your Name (2017)
Daniel Day-Lewis – Phantom Thread (2017)
Daniel Kaluuya – Get Out (2017)
Gary Oldman – Darkest Hour (2017)
Denzel Washington – Roman J. Israel, Esq. (2017)

The time has finally come for Gary Oldman, and everyone else has taken a backseat behind him throughout this season.

Prediction: Gary Oldman
Preference: Timothée Chalamet


Best Performance by an Actress in a Leading Role
Sally Hawkins – The Shape of Water (2017)
Frances McDormand – Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (2017)
Margot Robbie – I, Tonya (2017)
Saoirse Ronan – Lady Bird (2017)
Meryl Streep – The Post (2017)

With her wins at the Golden Globe, SAG, BFCA and BAFTA award, Frances McDormand has been the front winner in this category, and I will be glad to see her getting her second Oscar, though I must point out that other nominees are as stellar as her in their respective performances.

Prediction: Frances McDormand
Preference: Frances McDormand


Best Performance by an Actor in a Supporting Role
Willem Dafoe – The Florida Project (2017)
Woody Harrelson – Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (2017)
Richard Jenkins – The Shape of Water (2017)
Christopher Plummer – All the Money in the World (2017)
Sam Rockwell – Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (2017)

I have really hoped that Willem Dafoe will win the award for “The Florida Project”, but, no, the award will go to Sam Rockwell, who has taken away several major awards for his dynamic performance in “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”.

Prediction: Sam Rockwell
Preference: Willem Dafoe


Best Performance by an Actress in a Supporting Role
Mary J. Blige – Mudbound (2017)
Allison Janney – I, Tonya (2017)
Lesley Manville – Phantom Thread (2017)
Laurie Metcalf – Lady Bird (2017)
Octavia Spencer – The Shape of Water (2017)

Like Oldman, McDormand, and Rockwell, Allison Janney has been the strong front runner in her category, and there is not much doubt on her eventual win.

Prediction: Allison Janney
Preference: Laurie Metcalf


Best Achievement in Directing
Christopher Nolan – Dunkirk (2017)
Jordan Peele – Get Out (2017)
Greta Gerwig – Lady Bird (2017)
Paul Thomas Anderson – Phantom Thread (2017)
Guillermo del Toro – The Shape of Water (2017)

Guillermo del Toro won the Golden Globe, DGA, and BAFTA award, you know.

Prediction: Guillermo del Toro
Preference: Christopher Nolan


Best Original Screenplay
The Big Sick (2017): Emily V. Gordon, Kumail Nanjiani
Get Out (2017): Jordan Peele
Lady Bird (2017): Greta Gerwig
The Shape of Water (2017): Guillermo del Toro, Vanessa Taylor
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (2017): Martin McDonagh

“Get Out” may win, but “Three Billboards Outside Missouri, Ebbing” also has considerable possibility.

Prediction: “Get Out”
Preference: “Three Billboards Outside Missouri, Ebbing”


Best Adapted Screenplay
Call Me by Your Name (2017): James Ivory
The Disaster Artist (2017): Scott Neustadter, Michael H. Weber
Logan (2017): Scott Frank, James Mangold, Michael Green
Molly’s Game (2017): Aaron Sorkin
Mudbound (2017): Virgil Williams, Dee Rees

“Call Me by Your Name” is the best of the bunch, and it will certainly be thrilling to see James Ivory coming up to the stage for his well-deserved Oscar.

Prediction: “Call Me by Your Name”
Preference: “Call Me by Your Name”


Best Achievement in Cinematography
Blade Runner 2049 (2017): Roger Deakins
Darkest Hour (2017): Bruno Delbonnel
Dunkirk (2017): Hoyte van Hoytema
Mudbound (2017): Rachel Morrison
The Shape of Water (2017): Dan Laustsen

The time has come for Roger Deakins, who has somehow never won an Oscar despite his 14 nominations.

Prediction: “Blade Runner 2049”
Preference: “Blade Runner 2049”


Best Achievement in Production Design
Beauty and the Beast (2017): Sarah Greenwood, Katie Spencer
Blade Runner 2049 (2017): Dennis Gassner, Alessandra Querzola
Darkest Hour (2017): Sarah Greenwood, Katie Spencer
Dunkirk (2017): Nathan Crowley, Gary Fettis
The Shape of Water (2017): Paul Denham Austerberry, Shane Vieau, Jeff Melvin

“Blade Runner 2049” may win, but “The Shape of Water” will definitely win here.

Prediction: “The Shape of Water”
Preference: “Blade Runner 2049”


Best Achievement in Costume Design
Beauty and the Beast (2017): Jacqueline Durran
Darkest Hour (2017): Jacqueline Durran
Phantom Thread (2017): Mark Bridges
The Shape of Water (2017): Luis Sequeira
Victoria & Abdul (2017): Consolata Boyle

As a movie about a dressmaker hero, “Phantom Thread” has been the front runner in this category.

Prediction: “Phantom Thread”
Preference: “Phantom Thread”


Best Achievement in Film Editing
Baby Driver (2017): Paul Machliss and Jonathan Amos
Dunkirk (2017): Lee Smith
I, Tonya (2017): Tatiana S. Riegel
The Shape of Water (2017): Sidney Wolinsky
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (2017): Jon Gregory

Guess which nominee is the busiest one…

Prediction: “Dunkirk”
Preference: “Dunkirk”


Best Achievement in Sound Mixing
Baby Driver (2017): Julian Slater, Tim Cavagin, Mary H. Ellis
Blade Runner 2049 (2017): Ron Bartlett, Doug Hemphill, Mac Ruth
Dunkirk (2017): Mark Weingarten, Gregg Landaker, Gary A. Rizzo
The Shape of Water (2017): Christian Cooke, Brad Zoern, Glen Gauthier
Star Wars: The Last Jedi (2017) David Parker, Michael Semanick, Ren Klyce, Stuart Wilson

War movies usually win in this category, so….

Prediction: “Dunkirk”
Preference: “Dunkirk”

Best Achievement in Sound Editing
Baby Driver (2017): Julian Slater
Blade Runner 2049 (2017): Mark Mangini, Theo Green
Dunkirk (2017): Richard King, Alex Gibson
The Shape of Water (2017): Nathan Robitaille, Nelson Ferreira
Star Wars: The Last Jedi (2017): Matthew Wood, Ren Klyce

And for the same reason…

Prediction: “Dunkirk”
Preference: “Dunkirk”


Best Achievement in Makeup and Hairstyling
Darkest Hour (2017): Kazuhiro Tsuji, David Malinowski, Lucy Sibbick
Victoria & Abdul (2017): Daniel Phillips, Lou Sheppard
Wonder (2017): Arjen Tuiten

Gary Oldman’s performance is helped a lot by that flawless makeup, you know.

Prediction: “Darkest Hour”
Preference: “Darkest Hour”


Best Achievement in Music Written for Motion Pictures (Original Score)
Dunkirk (2017): Hans Zimmer
Phantom Thread (2017): Jonny Greenwood
The Shape of Water (2017): Alexandre Desplat
Star Wars: The Last Jedi (2017): John Williams
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (2017): Carter Burwell

John Williams gave us another fantastic score in “Star Wars: The Last Jedi”, and Jonny Greenwood’s score is simply marvelous in “Phantom Thread”, but the award will go to Alexandre Desplat, who composed a lovely score for “The Shape of Water”.

Prediction: “The Shape of Water”
Preference: “Star Wars: The Last Jedi”

Best Achievement in Music Written for Motion Pictures (Original Song)

“Mighty River” from Mudbound (2017): Mary J. Blige, Raphael Saadiq, Taura Stinson
“Mystery of Love” from Call Me by Your Name (2017): Sufjan Stevens
“Remember Me” from Coco (2017): Kristen Anderson-Lopez, Robert Lopez
“Stand Up for Something” from Marshall (2017): Common, Diane Warren
“This Is Me” from The Greatest Showman (2017): Benj Pasek, Justin Paul

“Remember Me” has been the front runner in this category, but watch out for “This Is Me”

Prediction: “Remember Me”
Preference: “Remember Me”


Best Achievement in Visual Effects
Blade Runner 2049 (2017): John Nelson, Gerd Nefzer, Paul Lambert, Richard R. Hoover
Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 (2017): Christopher Townsend, Guy Williams, Jonathan Fawkner, Dan Sudick
Kong: Skull Island (2017): Stephen Rosenbaum, Jeff White, Scott Benza, Mike Meinardus
Star Wars: The Last Jedi (2017): Ben Morris, Mike Mulholland, Neal Scanlan, Chris Corbould
War for the Planet of the Apes (2017): Joe Letteri, Daniel Barrett, Dan Lemmon, Joel Whist

I think “War for the Planet of the Apes” will win, but watch out for “Blade Runner 2049”

Prediction: “War for the Planet of the Apes”
Preference: “Blade Runner 2049”


Best Foreign Language Film of the Year
A Fantastic Woman (2017): Sebastián Lelio
The Insult (2017): Ziad Doueiri
Loveless (2017): Andrey Zvyagintsev
On Body and Soul (2017): Ildikó Enyedi
The Square (2017): Ruben Östlund

Any nominee in this category is not particularly strong in the competition. I have seen all of them except “The Insult”, and I predict that the award will go to “A Fantastic Woman”, which is probably more accessible to Academy voters than “Loveless”, “On Body and Soul”, and “The Square”.

Prediction: “A Fantastic Woman”
Preference: “A Fantastic Woman”


Best Animated Feature Film
The Boss Baby (2017): Tom McGrath, Ramsey Ann Naito
The Breadwinner (2017): Nora Twomey, Anthony Leo
Coco (2017): Lee Unkrich Darla K. Anderson
Ferdinand (2017): Carlos Saldanha
Loving Vincent (2017): Dorota Kobiela, Hugh Welchman, Ivan Mactaggart

There has not been any doubt in this category from the start.

Prediction: “Coco”
Preference: “Coco”


Best Documentary Feature
Abacus: Small Enough to Jail (2016): Steve James, Mark Mitten, Julie Goldman
Faces Places (2017): Agnès Varda, JR, Rosalie Varda
Icarus (2017): Bryan Fogel, Dan Cogan
Last Men in Aleppo (2017): Feras Fayyad, Kareem Abeed, Søren Steen Jespersen
Strong Island (2017): Yance Ford, Joslyn Barnes

Will they give another award to Agnès Varda besides the Honorary award she received in last year? I think that is quite possible.

Prediction: “Faces Places”
Preference: “Faces Places”

Best Animated Short Film
Dear Basketball (2017): Glen Keane, Kobe Bryant
Garden Party (2017): Victor Caire, Gabriel Grapperon
Lou (2017): Dave Mullins, Dana Murray
Negative Space (2017): Max Porter, Ru Kuwahata
Revolting Rhymes (2016): Jakob Schuh, Jan Lachauer

Prediction: “Dear Basketball”

Best Live Action Short Film
DeKalb Elementary (2017): Reed Van Dyk
The Eleven O’Clock (2016): Derin Seale, Josh Lawson
My Nephew Emmett (2017): Kevin Wilson Jr.
The Silent Child (2017): Chris Overton, Rachel Shenton
Watu Wote/All of Us (2017): Katja Benrath, Tobias Rosen

Prediction: “DeKalb Elementary”

Best Documentary Short Subject
Edith+Eddie (2017): Laura Checkoway, Thomas Lee Wright
Heaven Is a Traffic Jam on the 405 (2016): Frank Stiefel
Heroin(e) (2017): Elaine McMillion Sheldon, Kerrin Sheldon
Knife Skills (2017): Thomas Lennon
Traffic Stop (2017): Kate Davis, David Heilbroner

Prediction: “Edith+Eddie”

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1 Response to My prediction on the 90th Annual Academy Awards

  1. Very interesting structure of your piece. Almost all my predictions are the same as yours. I will be doing a similar post this Saturday. Please follow back.

    SC: I will read your upcoming post.

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