Now the Academy awards ceremony is near again. Many people have made their predictions on the results that will be revealed on the next Sunday, February 27, and, as usual, they agrees on some categories while disagreeing on others. Although I did not watch all of the nominees, I saw all of the major contenders, so here is my prediction on the 83rd Annual Academy award.
Don’t bet on me, by the way. After getting slapped by “Crash” in 2006(Am I only one who thinks it deserves Best Picture award besides Roger Ebert?), I checked every nominee and possibility as far as I could, but, like many of you, I have never guessed the result correctly yet. As a matter of fact, I submitted my prediction to Roger Ebert’s site, but I do not expect much – it was just for a fun, folks.
Best Motion Picture of the Year
127 Hours (2010): Christian Colson, Danny Boyle, John Smithson
Black Swan (2010): Mike Medavoy, Brian Oliver, Scott Franklin
The Fighter (2010): David Hoberman, Todd Lieberman, Mark Wahlberg
Inception (2010): Christopher Nolan, Emma Thomas
The Kids Are All Right (2010): Gary Gilbert, Jeffrey Levy-Hinte, Celine Rattray
The King’s Speech (2010): Iain Canning, Emile Sherman, Gareth Unwin
The Social network (2010): Scott Rudin, Dana Brunetti, Michael De Luca, Ceán Chaffin
Toy Story 3 (2010): Darla K. Anderson
True Grit (2010): Ethan Coen, Joel Coen, Scott Rudin
Winter’s Bone (2010): Anne Rosellini, Alix Madigan
Let’s erase five nominees that did not get Best Director nomination: “127 Hours”, “Inception”, “The Kids Are All Right”, “Toy Story 3”, and “Winter’s Bone”. “The Fighter” has little chance for it is supporting actors’ movie. “Black Swan” will get Best Actress award as its sole reward. “True Grit” scored 10 nominations, but it is not nominated for Best Editing – not a good sign for its chance to win.
So we have “The King’s Speech” and “The Social Network”. The latter is certainly the best film of 2010. Its electrifying drama fascinates us with how our society is being changed due to the human relationships adapted into the electronic communication network by the nerds like Mark Zuckerberg, who, ironically, does not understand much about the human relationships(Never mind about how real-life Zuckerberg is different from the movie’s version). Will this rapid change be good or bad for us? I am not sure, and neither are the writer Aaron Sorkin and the director David Fincher. At least, I know the Internet can make lots of difference in our world nowadays than before – as shown in Egypt.
But I think Best Picture award will go to “The King’s Speech”. With the story about one historic figure who overcomes his disability with the help from others, you can say that this period drama is made for Academy Awards. And it is a very powerful movie that seems to touch many people’s heart in Hollywood; it won SAG, PGA, DGA. With this result, there is a little chance for upset by “The Social Network”.
Prediction : The King’s Speech
Preference : The Social Network
Best Performance by an Actor in a Leading Role
Javier Bardem for Biutiful (2010)
Jeff Bridges for True Grit (2010)
Jesse Eisenberg for The Social Network (2010)
Colin Firth for The King’s Speech (2010)
James Franco for 127 Hours (2010)
Considering the performances themselves, this is a heavy competition. I have not seen “Bitiful” yet, but many agree that it has Bardem’s best performance – but it is clear that his nomination itself is the reward. Bridges has won the award in last year, so he also does not have much possibility. Both Eisenberg and Franco give terrific performances, but the time has come for Colin Firth, who gives a very moving performance as King George Ⅵ in “The King’s Speech”.
Prediction : Colin Firth
Preference : Colin Firth
Best Performance by an Actress in a Leading Role
Annette Bening for The Kids Are All Right (2010)
Nicole Kidman for Rabbit Hole (2010)
Jennifer Lawrence for Winter’s Bone (2010)
Natalie Portman for Black Swan (2010)
Michelle Williams for Blue Valentine (2010)
This is another heavy competition – all actresses are very good in their respective movies. First, Kidman and Williams will be content with their nominations, and so does Lawrence. Maybe some voters think it is time to give Bening the award, but, Portman is overwhelmingly favored at present for her dynamic performance in “Black Swan”. And she has already won Golden Globe, SAG, BAFTA, and many critics award. If she beats Bening at the Independent Spirit Awards on next Saturday, there will be no more questions about her win.
Prediction : Natalie Portman
Preference : Natalie Portman
Best Performance by an Actor in a Supporting Role
Christian Bale for The Fighter (2010)
John Hawkes for Winter’s Bone (2010)
Jeremy Renner for The Town (2010)
Mark Ruffalo for The Kids Are All Right (2010)
Geoffrey Rush for The King’s Speech (2010)
With SAG and Golden Globe awards, I think Bale will win an award. As a character the movie should have focused on instead of its bland hero, he was fantastic. It is possible that Rush, who recently won BAFTA award for his witty performance, will make an upset due to the popularity of “The King’s Speech”. The other three nominees – Hawkes, Renner, and Ruffalo – will take a backseat. I’d like to see Hawkes to win for his nuanced performance as a criminal uncle capable of showing ruthlessness as well as compassion to his desperate niece in “Winter’s Bone”.
Prediction : Christian Bale
Preference : John Hawkes
Best Performance by an Actress in a Supporting Role
Amy Adams for The Fighter (2010)
Helena Bonham Carter for The King’s Speech (2010)
Melissa Leo for The Fighter (2010)
Hailee Steinfeld for True Grit (2010)
Jacki Weaver for Animal Kingdom (2010)
Like many times before, this category is quite unpredictable. It seems that Leo is the front runner with Golden Globe and SAG wins, but Steinfield is a strong competitor with her exceptional performance. Adams and Weaver have almost no chance in this race, and, in case of Carter, she might win the award considering her recent BAFTA win. I have stuck with Steinfeld since I watched “True Grit” – but I also want to recognize the chilling performance by Weaver, who plays a ruthless, manipulative matriarch in “Animal Kingdom”
Prediction : Melissa Leo
Preference : Hailee Steinfeld – or Jackie Weaver
Darren Aronofsky for Black Swan (2010)
Ethan Coen, Joel Coen for True Grit (2010)
David Fincher for The Social Network (2010)
Tom Hooper for The King’s Speech (2010)
David O. Russell for The Fighter (2010)
There is lots of chance that Hooper, who won DGA award, will win the award, but I will stick with Fincher, who made one of the best movies in his career. I am sure Academy members will recognize his achievement… about 55%.
Prediction : David Fincher
Preference : David Fincher





















































