My prediction on the 93rd Annual Academy Awards

The Oscar season of this year, which is understandably lengthened due to the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, is probably the most leisurely one I have ever experienced during last 10 years. In last year, I was often exhausted as hurriedly checking out a bunch of Oscar contenders during only several weeks before the ceremony. In this year, I was a bit more relaxed than before while reviewing the Oscar contenders of this year one by one during a much longer period.

While the mood is relatively less exciting compared to when we watched the dramatic rise and subsequent triumph of “Parasite” in last year, there is still much room for excitement and tension nonetheless. It looks like “Nomadland” will win several awards including Best Picture and Best Director Oscar, but there are still considerable possibilities of upset by “The Trial of the Chicago 7” or “Minari”. In addition, several other major categories also turn out to be rather unpredictable, and, above all, the Best Actress Oscar race has been unexpectedly quite chaotic during last several weeks.

So, will “Nomadland” prevail as most of us predicted? Will Netflix, which gets heaps of works Oscar-nominated as before, finally win the Best Picture Oscar via “The Trial of the Chicago 7” besides winning several smaller awards? Will the Best Actress Oscar race lead to a really historical moment to watch in the end? I still cannot be that sure about everything, but, as usual, I give you my inconsequential Oscar prediction, and let’s have some fun with how much you can outguess me.

Best Picture
The Father” (2020) David Parfitt, Jean-Louis Livi and Philippe Carcassonne
Judas and the Black Messiah” (2021) Shaka King, Charles D. King and Ryan Coogler
Mank” (2020) Ceán Chaffin, Eric Roth and Douglas Urbanski
Minari” (2020) Christina Oh
Nomadland” (2020) Frances McDormand, Peter Spears, Mollye Asher, Dan Janvey and Chloé Zhao
Promising Young Woman” (2020) Ben Browning, Ashley Fox, Emerald Fennell and Josey McNamara
Sound of Metal” (2019) Bert Hamelinck and Sacha Ben Harroche
The Trial of the Chicago 7” (2020) Marc Platt and Stuart Besser

After winning Golden Globe, BFCA, DGA, PGA, and BAFTA, “Nomadland” has solidified its status as the front runner compared to the other nominees. Although “The Trial of the Chicago 7”, which won the SAG ensemble award in last month, may win at the last minute just like “Parasite” did in last year, but I do not think that will happen.

Prediction: “Nomadland”
Preference: “Nomadland”

Best Actor in a Leading Role
Riz Ahmed – “Sound of Metal” (2019)
Chadwick Boseman – “Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom” (2020)
Anthony Hopkins – “The Father” (2020)
Gary Oldman – “Mank” (2020)
Steven Yeun – “Minari” (2020)

Late Chadwick Boseman has been the front runner as winning Golden Globe, BFCA, and SAG, but Anthony Hopkins, who recently won BAFTA to our little surprise, may win.

Prediction: Chadwick Boseman
Preference: Riz Ahmed – and my salute to Chadwick Boseman and Anthony Hopkins

Best Actress in a Leading Role
Viola Davis – “Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom” (2019)
Andra Day – “The United States v. Billie Holiday” (2021)
Vanessa Kirby – “Pieces of a Woman” (2020)
Frances McDormand – “Nomadland” (2020)
Carey Mulligan – “Promising Young Woman” (2020)

This category turns out to be one of the few very unpredictable ones in this year. While Andra Day unexpectedly won Golden Globe, the movie is not so good enough to boost her chance. While Vanessa Kirby deservedly won the Best Actress award at the Venice International Festival, there has not been much buzz around her. While Viola Davis won SAG, the voters will probably focus more on honoring her deceased co-star’s last performance. While France McDormand won BAFTA, her fabulous performance is not that showy enough to get more votes on her side. While Carey Mulligan won BFCA, her opportunity has been decreasing during last several weeks. Considering that SAG is relatively more reliable than other awards, I will predict that Davis will win.

Prediction: Viola Davis
Preference: Frances McDormand

Best Actor in a Supporting Role
Sacha Baron Cohen – “The Trial of the Chicago 7” (2020)
Daniel Kaluuya – “Judas and the Black Messiah” (2021)
Leslie Odom Jr. – “One Night in Miami” (2020)
Paul Raci – “Sound of Metal” (2019)
Lakeith Stanfield – “Judas and the Black Messiah” (2021)

Daniel Kaluuya, who was electrifyingly magnetic in “Judas and the Black Messiah”, swept Golden Globe, SAG, BFCA, and BAFTA, so…

Prediction: Daniel Kaluuya
Preference: Paul Raci

Best Actress in a Supporting Role
Maria Bakalova – “Borat Subsequent Moviefilm” (2020)
Glenn Close – “Hillbilly Elegy” (2020)
Olivia Colman – “The Father” (2020)
Amanda Seyfried – “Mank” (2020)
Yuh-jung Youn – “Minari” (2020)

Although she was not nominated in case of Golden Globe, Yuh-jung Youn has been the front runner thanks to her triumph at BAFTA and SAG, but watch out for Glenn Close, who may finally win the award despite her not-so-acclaimed movie, or Maria Bakalova, who is the best thing in “Borat Subsequent Moviefilm”.

Prediction: Yuh-jung Youn
Preference: Yuh-jung Youn

Best Director
Thomas Vinterberg – “Another Round” (2020)
David Fincher – “Mank” (2020)
Lee Isaac Chung – “Minari” (2020)
Chloé Zhao – “Nomadland” (2020)
Emerald Fennell – “Promising Young Woman” (2020)

Chloé Zhao won numerous awards besides Golden Globe, BAFTA, BFCA, and DGA, so….

Prediction: Nomadland
Preference: Nomadland

Best Original Screenplay
“Judas and the Black Messiah” (2021): Screenplay by Will Berson, Shaka King; Story by Will Berson, Shaka King, Kenny Lucas, Keith Lucas
“Minari” (2020): Lee Isaac Chung
“Promising Young Woman” (2020): Emerald Fennell
“Sound of Metal” (2020): Screenplay by Darius Marder, Abraham Marder; Story by Darius Marder, Derek Cianfrance
“The Trial of the Chicago 7” (2020): Aaron Sorkin

“Promising Young Woman” and “The Trial of the Chicago 7” have competed with each other during last several months, and I think the former will win considering its victory at WGA, BAFTA, and BFCA.

Prediction: “Promising Young Woman”
Preference: “Minari”

Best Adapted Screenplay
“Borat Subsequent Moviefilm” (2020): Screenplay by Sacha Baron Cohen, Anthony Hines, Dan Swimer, Peter Baynham, Erica Rivinoja, Dan Mazer, Jena Friedman, Lee Kern; Story by Sacha Baron Cohen, Anthony Hines, Dan Swimer, Nina Pedrad
“The Father” (2020) Christopher Hampton and Florian Zeller
“Nomadland” (2020) Chloé Zhao
“One Night in Miami” (2020) Kemp Powers
The White Tiger” (2021) Ramin Bahrani

“Nomadland” may win in the end, but I think it will go to “The Father”

Prediction: “The Father”
Preference: “The Father”

Best Film Editing
“The Father” (2020): Yorgos Lamprinos
“Nomadland” (2020): Chloé Zhao
“Promising Young Woman” (2020): Frédéric Thoraval
“Sound of Metal” (2019): Mikkel E.G. Nielsen
“The Trial of the Chicago 7” (2020): Alan Baumgarten

The award usually goes to the busiest one, so it will be a competition between “Sound of Metal” and “The Trial of the Chicago 7”, which is likely to win considering that it recently won ACE.

Prediction: “The Trial of the Chicago 7”
Preference: “Sound of Metal”

Best Cinematography
“Judas and the Black Messiah” (2021): Sean Bobbitt
“Mank” (2020): Erik Messerschmidt
News of the World” (2020): Dariusz Wolski
“Nomadland” (2020): Joshua James Richards
“The Trial of the Chicago 7” (2020): Phedon Papamichael

I think “Nomadland” will win, but watch out for “Mank”, which recently won ASC.

Prediction: “Nomadland”
Preference: “Nomadland”

Best Original Score
Da 5 Bloods” (2020): Terence Blanchard
“Mank” (2020): Trent Reznor, Atticus Ross
“Minari” (2020): Emile Mosseri
“News of the World” (2020): James Newton Howard
“Soul” (2020): Trent Reznor, Atticus Ross, Jon Batiste

“Soul” has been the unbeatable front runner during last several months.

Prediction: “Soul”
Preference: “Da 5 Bloods”

Best Original Song
“Fight for You” from “Judas and the Black Messiah (2021): Music by H.E.R. and Dernst Emile II; Lyric by H.E.R. and Tiara Thomas
“Hear My Voice” from “The Trial of the Chicago 7” (2020): Music by Daniel Pemberton; Lyric by Daniel Pemberton and Celeste Waite
“Húsavík” from “Eurovision Song Contest” (2020): Music and Lyric by Savan Kotecha, Fat Max Gsus and Rickard Göransson
“Io Si (Seen)” from “The Life Ahead” (2020): Music by Diane Warren; Lyric by Diane Warren and Laura Pausini
“Speak Now” from “One Night in Miami” (2020): Music and Lyric by Leslie Odom, Jr. and Sam Ashworth

“Speak Now” will win, but watch out for “Húsavík”.

Prediction: “Speak Now”
Preference: “Speak Now”

Best Production Design
“The Father” (2020): Production Design: Peter Francis; Set Decoration: Cathy Featherstone
“Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom” (2020): Production Design: Mark Ricker; Set Decoration: Karen O’Hara and Diana Stoughton
“Mank” (2020): Production Design: Donald Graham Burt; Set Decoration: Jan Pascale
“News of the World” (2020): Production Design: David Crank; Set Decoration: Elizabeth Keenan
Tenet” (2020): Production Design: Nathan Crowley; Set Decoration: Kathy Lucas

This is the category where “Mank” will definitely win.

Prediction: “Mank”
Preference: “Mank”

Best Costume Design
Emma.” (2020): Alexandra Byrne
“Mank” (2020): Trish Summerville
“Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom” (2020): Ann Roth
Mulan” (2020): Bina Daigeler
Pinocchio” (2019): Massimo Cantini Parrini

“Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom” has been the front runner here, so…

Prediction: “Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom”
Preference: “Emma.”

Best Makeup and Hairstyling
“Emma.” (2020): Marese Langan, Laura Allen, Claudia Stolze
“Hillbilly Elegy” (2020): Eryn Krueger Mekash, Patricia Dehaney, Matthew Mungle
“Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom” (2020): Sergio Lopez-Rivera, Mia Neal, Jamika Wilson
“Mank” (2020): Kimberley Spiteri, Gigi Williams, Colleen LaBaff
“Pinocchio” (2019): Mark Coulier, Dalia Colli, Francesco Pegoretti

Again, “Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom” has been the front runner here, so…

Prediction: “Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom”
Preference: “Pinocchio”

Best Sound
Greyhound” (2020): Warren Shaw, Michael Minkler, Beau Borders and David Wyman
“Mank” (2020): Ren Klyce, Jeremy Molod, David Parker, Nathan Nance and Drew Kunin
“News of the World” (2020): Oliver Tarney, Mike Prestwood Smith, William Miller and John Pritchett
“Soul” (2020): Ren Klyce, Coya Elliott and David Parker
“Sound of Metal” (2019): Nicolas Becker, Jaime Baksht, Michelle Couttolenc, Carlos Cortés and Phillip Bladh

There is no doubt on this category at all.

Prediction: “Sound of Metal”
Preference: “Sound of Metal”

Best Visual Effects
Love and Monsters” (2020): Matt Sloan, Genevieve Camilleri, Matt Everitt and Brian Cox
The Midnight Sky” (2020): Matthew Kasmir, Christopher Lawrence, Max Solomon and David Watkins
“Mulan” (2020): Sean Faden, Anders Langlands, Seth Maury and Steve Ingram
The One and Only Ivan” (2020): Nick Davis, Greg Fisher, Ben Jones and Santiago Colomo Martinez
“Tenet” (2020): Andrew Jackson, David Lee, Andrew Lockley and Scott Fisher

I think “Tenet” will win.

Prediction: “Tenet”
Preference: “Tenet”

Best Animated Feature Film
Onward” (2020): Kori Rae and Dan Scanlon
Over the Moon” (2020): Peilin Chou, Glen Keane and Gennie Rin
A Shaun the Sheep Movie: Farmageddon” (2019): Will Becher, Paul Kewley and Richard Phelan
“Soul” (2020): Pete Docter and Dana Murray
Wolfwalkers” (2020): Tomm Moore, Stéphan Roelants, Ross Stewart and Paul Young

Again, there is not any doubt on this category.

Prediction: “Soul”
Preference: “Wolfwalkers”

Best International Feature Film
“Another Round” (Denmark) (2020): Directed by Thomas Vinterberg
Better Days” (Hong Kong) (2020): Directed by Derek Tsang
Collective” (Romania) (2019): Directed by Alexander Nanau
The Man Who Sold His Skin” (Tunisia) (2020): Directed by Kaouther Ben Hania
Quo Vadis, Aida?” (Bosnia and Herzegovina) (2020): Directed by Jasmila Žbanić

“Another Round” has been the front runner here, and its Best Director nomination surely helps that.

Prediction: “Another Round”
Preference: “Quo Vadis, Aida?”

Best Documentary Feature
“Collective (2019): Alexander Nanau and Bianca Oana
Crip Camp” (2020): Nicole Newnham, Jim LeBrecht and Sara Bolder
The Mole Agent” (2020): Maite Alberdi and Marcela Santibáñez
My Octopus Teacher” (2020): Pippa Ehrlich, James Reed and Craig Foster
Time” (2020): Garrett Bradley, Lauren Domino and Kellen Quinn

“My Octopus Teacher” won PGA and BAFTA, so…

Prediction: “My Octopus Teacher”
Preference: “Time”

Best Documentary Short Subject
“Colette” (2020): Anthony Giacchino and Alice Doyard
“A Concerto Is a Conversation” (2021): Ben Proudfoot and Kris Bowers
“Do Not Split” (2020): Anders Hammer and Charlotte Cook
“Hunger Ward” (2020): Skye Fitzgerald and Michael Scheuerman
“A Love Song for Latasha” (2019): Sophia Nahli Allison and Janice Duncan

All of the nominees are pretty good, and I think the award will go to “A Love Song For Latasha”.

Prediction: “A Love Song for Latasha”
Preference: “Do Not Split”

Best Live-Action Short Film
“Feeling Through” (2019): Doug Roland and Susan Ruzenski
“The Letter Room” (2020): Elvira Lind and Sofia Sondervan
“The Present” (2020): Ossama Bawardi and Farah Nabulsi
“Two Distant Strangers” (2020): Travon Free and Martin Desmond Roe
“White Eye” (2019): Shira Hochman and Tomer Shushan

“Two Distant Strangers” will probably win despite being the weakest one in the bunch, but watch out for “The Letter Room”.

Prediction: “Two Distant Strangers”
Preference: “The Letter Room”

Best Animated Short Film
“Burrow” (2020): Michael Capbarat and Madeline Sharafian
“Genius Loci” (2020): Adrien Mérigeau and Amaury Ovise
“If Anything Happens I Love You” (2020): Michael Govier and Will McCormack
“Opera” (2020): Erick Oh
“Yes-People” (2020): Arnar Gunnarsson and Gísli Darri Halldórsson

I only watched “Burrow”, “If Anything Happens I Love You”, and “Yes-People”, and “If Anything Happens I Love You” is the best one in the bunch.

Prediction: “If Anything Happens I Love You”
Preference: “If Anything Happens I Love You”

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