My Prediction on the 94th Academy Awards

We are approaching the end of the first quarter of 2022, and things have been pretty much same as the COVID-19 pandemic is still dominating over us as usual. Although the situation has been less severe in South Korea compared to many other countries including US, I and many others in South Korea are quite careful about any possibility of infection nonetheless due to another big wave of infection, and I still often work a lot at my workplace, whose employees have tirelessly produced virus test kit materials during last two years.

Meanwhile, I watched lots of movies as usual, and I have certainly paid some attention to the current Oscar race. The Oscar race of this year turned out to have some surprises as a number of major local awards showed one interesting sign after another during last several months, and we were all surprised as “CODA” eventually rose as an underdog to defeat “The Power of the Dog”, which has been the top dog of the race for a while. In my humble opinion, “CODA” will make a small but clean sweep in all of its three categories including Best Picture Oscar, and I will be pretty fine with the eventful victory of this little likable family drama film even though I think we had a bunch of better films in last year (Did you watch “Drive My Car” or “The Worst Person in the World”, by the way?).

Anyway, I am pretty sure about which movie will win in case of many categories, but I am still not so sure about several others including Best Screenplay and Best Song Oscar, and I guess we will have some upsets on March 27th. To be frank with you, I have never been wholly correct in my prediction, so I bet you have a pretty good chance of outguessing me.

Best Picture
Belfast” (2021) – Laura Berwick, Kenneth Branagh, Becca Kovacik and Tamar Thomas
CODA” (2021) – Philippe Rousselet, Fabrice Gianfermi and Patrick Wachsberger
Don’t Look Up” (2021) – Adam McKay and Kevin Messick
Drive My Car” (2021) – Teruhisa Yamamoto
Dune” (2021) – Mary Parent, Denis Villeneuve and Cale Boyter
King Richard” (2021) – Tim White, Trevor White and Will Smith
Licorice Pizza” (2021) – Sara Murphy, Adam Somner and Paul Thomas Anderson
Nightmare Alley” (2021) – Guillermo del Toro, J. Miles Dale and Bradley Cooper
The Power of the Dog” (2021) – Jane Campion, Tanya Seghatchian, Emile Sherman, Iain Canning and Roger Frappier
West Side Story” (2021) – Steven Spielberg and Kristie Macosko Krieger

After steadily triumphing at PGA, WGA, and SAG, “CODA” becomes the new front runner to beat despite receiving only 3 nominations, and I think numerous Oscar voters prefer something more cheerful and amiable after “Parasite” and “Nomadland”. Although “The Power of the Dog”, which received no less than 12 nominations, may win in the end, I do not see much love toward it, and I will not be surprised if it won only in Best Director Oscar.

Prediction: “CODA”
Preference: “The Power of the Dog”

Best Actor
Javier Bardem – “Being the Ricardos” (2021)
Benedict Cumberbatch – “The Power of the Dog” (2021)
Andrew Garfield – “Tick, Tick… Boom!” (2021)
Will Smith – “King Richard” (2021)
Denzel Washington – “The Tragedy of Macbeth” (2021)

After winning Golden Globe, SAG, Critics’ Choice Award, and BAFTA, Will Smith has been a mighty front runner in the race, and I do not see any possibility of upset.

Prediction: Will Smith
Preference: Benedict Cumberbatch

Best Actress
Jessica Chastain – “The Eyes of Tammy Faye” (2021)
Olivia Colman – “The Lost Daughter” (2021)
Penélope Cruz – “Parallel Mothers” (2021)
Nicole Kidman – “Being the Ricardos” (2021)
Kristen Stewart – “Spencer” (2021)

We were confused for a while, but Jessica Chastain has rose as the front runner as winning SAG and Critics’ Choice award. After all, her performance is quite showier than other nominees’ efforts.

Prediction: Jessica Chastain
Preference: Penélope Cruz – and my salute to Olivia Colman and Kristen Stewart

Best Supporting Actor
Ciarán Hinds – “Belfast” (2021)
Troy Kotsur – “CODA” (2021)
Jesse Plemons – “The Power of the Dog” (2021)
J. K. Simmons – “Being the Ricardos” (2021)
Kodi Smit-McPhee – “The Power of the Dog” (2021)

After winning SAG, Critics’ Choice, and BAFTA Award, Troy Kotsur has been the one to beat, and I will be glad to see him becoming the first actor of deaf community to win an Oscar, though my heart goes to Kodi Smit-McPhee, who was simply terrific in “The Power of the Dog”.

Prediction: Troy Kotsur
Preference: Kodi Smit-McPhee

Best Supporting Actress
Jessie Buckley – “The Lost Daughter” (2021)
Ariana DeBose – “West Side Story” (2021)
Judi Dench – “Belfast” (2021)
Kirsten Dunst – “The Power of the Dog” (2021)
Aunjanue Ellis – “King Richard” (2021)

After winning Golden Globe, SAG, Critics’ Choice Award, and BAFTA, Ariana DeBose has been the mighty front runner in the race, so….

Prediction: Ariana DeBose
Preference: Ariana DeBose

Best Director
Kenneth Branagh – “Belfast” (2021)
Ryusuke Hamaguchi – “Drive My Car” (2021)
Paul Thomas Anderson – “Licorice Pizza” (2021)
Jane Campion – “The Power of the Dog” (2021)
Steven Spielberg – “West Side Story” (2021)

This is where “The Power of the Dog” will win because Golden Globe, BAFTA, Critics’ Choice, and DGA are all aligned for Jane Campion.

Prediction: Jane Campion.
Preference: Jane Campion

Best Original Screenplay
“Belfast” (2021) – Kenneth Branagh
“Don’t Look Up” (2021) – Screenplay by Adam McKay; Story by Adam McKay and David Sirota
“King Richard” (2021) – Zach Baylin
“Licorice Pizza” (2021) – Paul Thomas Anderson
The Worst Person in the World” (2021) – Eskil Vogt and Joachim Trier

This category has been a toss-up between “Licorice Pizza” and “Belfast”, and I pick the latter.

Prediction: “Belfast”
Preference: “The Worst Person in the World”

Best Adapted Screenplay
“CODA” (2021) – Sian Heder; based on the original motion picture screenplay La Famille Bélier written by Victoria Bedos, Thomas Bidegain, Stanislas Carré de Malberg and Éric Lartigau
“Drive My Car” (2021) – Ryusuke Hamaguchi and Takamasa Oe; based on the short story by Haruki Murakami
“Dune” (2021) – Jon Spaihts, Denis Villeneuve and Eric Roth; based on the novel by Frank Herbert
“The Lost Daughter” (2021) – Maggie Gyllenhaal; based on the novel by Elena Ferrante
“The Power of the Dog” (2021) – Jane Campion; based on the novel by Thomas Savage

After winning BAFTA and WGA Award, “CODA” has become the one to beat

Prediction: “CODA”
Preference: “The Power of the Dog”

Best Film Editing
“Don’t Look Up” (2021) – Hank Corwin
“Dune” (2021) – Joe Walker
“King Richard” (2021) – Pamela Martin
“The Power of the Dog” (2021) – Peter Sciberras
“Tick, Tick… Boom!” (2021) – Myron Kerstein and Andrew Weisblum

Which one does look the most technically impressive?

Prediction: “Dune”
Preference: “Tick, Tick… Boom!”

Best Cinematography
“Dune” (2021) – Greig Fraser
“Nightmare Alley” (2021) – Dan Laustsen
“The Power of the Dog” (2021) – Ari Wegner
“The Tragedy of Macbeth” (2021) – Bruno Delbonnel
“West Side Story” (2021) – Janusz Kamiński

For the same reason….

Prediction: “Dune”
Preference: “Dune”

Best Original Score
“Don’t Look Up” (2021) – Nicholas Britell
“Dune” (2021) – Hans Zimmer
Encanto” (2021) – Germaine Franco
“Parallel Mothers” (2021) – Alberto Iglesias
“The Power of the Dog” (2021) – Jonny Greenwood


Prediction: “Dune”
Preference: “Encanto”

Best Original Song
“Be Alive” from “King Richard” (2021) – Music and lyrics by DIXSON and Beyoncé Knowles-Carter
“Dos Oruguitas” from “Encanto” (2021) – Music and lyrics by Lin-Manuel Miranda
“Down to Joy” from “Belfast” (2021) – Music and lyrics by Van Morrison
“No Time to Die” from “No Time to Die” (2021) – Music and lyrics by Billie Eilish and Finneas O’Connell
“Somehow You Do” from “Four Good Days” (2020) – Music and lyrics by Diane Warren

I think “No Time to Die” will win here, but watch out for “Dos Oruguitas”.

Prediction: “No Time to Die”
Preference: “Dos Oruguitas”

Best Production Design
“Dune” (2021) – Production Design: Patrice Vermette; Set Decoration: Zsuzsanna Sipos
“Nightmare Alley” (2021) – Production Design: Tamara Deverell; Set Decoration: Shane Vieau
“The Power of the Dog” (2021) – Production Design: Grant Major; Set Decoration: Amber Richards
“The Tragedy of Macbeth” (2021) – Production Design: Stefan Dechant; Set Decoration: Nancy Haigh
“West Side Story” (2021) – Production Design: Adam Stockhausen; Set Decoration: Rena DeAngelo

How can other nominees possibly beat “Dune”?

Prediction: “Dune”
Preference: “Dune”

Best Costume Design
Cruella” (2021) – Jenny Beavan
Cyrano” (2021) – Massimo Cantini Parrini and Jacqueline Durran
“Dune” (2021) – Jacqueline West and Robert Morgan
“Nightmare Alley” (2021) – Luis Sequeira
“West Side Story” (2021) – Paul Tazewell

However, “Dune” cannot possibly beat all those magnificent costumes in “Cruella”.

Prediction: “Cruella”
Preference: “Cruella”

Best Makeup and Hairstyling
“Coming 2 America” (2021) – Mike Marino, Stacey Morris and Carla Farmer
“Cruella” (2021) – Nadia Stacey, Naomi Donne and Julia Vernon
“Dune” (2021) – Donald Mowat, Love Larson and Eva von Bahr
“The Eyes of Tammy Faye” (2021) – Linda Dowds, Stephanie Ingram and Justin Raleigh
House of Gucci” (2021) – Göran Lundström, Anna Carin Lock and Frederic Aspiras

“The Eyes of Tammy Faye” has been the front runner, so…

Prediction: “The Eyes of Tammy Faye”
Preference: “The Eyes of Tammy Faye”

Best Sound
“Belfast” (2021) – Denise Yarde, Simon Chase, James Mather and Niv Adiri
“Dune” (2021) – Mac Ruth, Mark Mangini, Theo Green, Doug Hemphill and Ron Bartlett
“No Time to Die” (2021) – Simon Hayes, Oliver Tarney, James Harrison, Paul Massey and Mark Taylor
“The Power of the Dog” (2021) – Richard Flynn, Robert Mackenzie and Tara Webb
“West Side Story” (2021) – Tod A. Maitland, Gary Rydstrom, Brian Chumney, Andy Nelson and Shawn Murphy

Don’t bet on any other nominee besides “Dune”.

Prediction: “Dune”
Preference: “Dune”

Best Visual Effects
“Dune” (2021) – Paul Lambert, Tristan Myles, Brian Connor and Gerd Nefzer
“Free Guy” (2021) – Swen Gillberg, Bryan Grill, Nikos Kalaitzidis and Dan Sudick
“No Time to Die” (2021) – Charlie Noble, Joel Green, Jonathan Fawkner and Chris Corbould
Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings” (2021) – Christopher Townsend, Joe Farrell, Sean Noel Walker and Dan Oliver
Spider-Man: No Way Home” (2021) – Kelly Port, Chris Waegner, Scott Edelstein and Dan Sudick


Prediction: “Dune”
Preference: “Dune”

Best Animated Feature Film
“Encanto” (2021) – Jared Bush, Byron Howard, Yvett Merino and Clark Spencer
Flee” (2021) – Jonas Poher Rasmussen, Monica Hellström, Signe Byrge Sørensen and Charlotte De La Gournerie
Luca” (2021) – Enrico Casarosa and Andrea Warren
The Mitchells vs. the Machines” (2021) – Mike Rianda, Phil Lord, Christopher Miller and Kurt Albrecht
Raya and the Last Dragon” (2021) – Don Hall, Carlos López Estrada, Osnat Shurer and Peter Del Vecho

This is where “Encanto” will definitely win, so…

Prediction; “Encanto”
Preference: “Flee”

Best International Feature Film
“Drive My Car” (2021) (Japan) in Japanese – directed by Ryusuke Hamaguchi
“Flee” (2021) (Denmark) in Danish – directed by Jonas Poher Rasmussen
The Hand of God” (2021) (Italy) in Italian – directed by Paolo Sorrentino
Lunana: A Yak in the Classroom” (2019) (Bhutan) in Dzongkha – directed by Pawo Choyning Dorji
“The Worst Person in the World” (2021) (Norway) in Norwegian – directed by Joachim Trier

This is where “Drive My Car” will surely win, so…

Prediction: “Drive My Car”
Preference: “Drive My Car”

Best Documentary Feature
“Ascension” (2021) – Jessica Kingdon, Kira Simon-Kennedy and Nathan Truesdell
Attica” (2021) – Stanley Nelson and Traci A. Curry
“Flee” (2021) – Jonas Poher Rasmussen, Monica Hellström, Signe Byrge Sørensen and Charlotte De La Gournerie
Summer of Soul (…Or, When the Revolution Could Not Be Televised)” (2021) – Ahmir “Questlove” Thompson, Joseph Patel, Robert Fyvolent and David Dinerstein
“Writing with Fire” (2021) – Rintu Thomas and Sushmit Ghosh

I think “Summer of Soul (…Or, When the Revolution Could Not Be Televised)” is the one to beat

Prediction: “Summer of Soul (…Or, When the Revolution Could Not Be Televised)”
Preference: “Flee”

Best Documentary Short Subject
“Audible” (2021) – Matthew Ogens and Geoff McLean
“Lead Me Home” (2021) – Pedro Kos and Jon Shenk
“The Queen of Basketball” (2021) – Ben Proudfoot
“Three Songs for Benazir” (2021) – Elizabeth Mirzaei and Gulistan Mirzaei
“When We Were Bullies” (2021) – Jay Rosenblatt

Prediction: “The Queen of Basketball”
Preference: “Three Songs for Benazir”

Best Live Action Short Film
“Ala Kachuu – Take and Run” (2020) – Maria Brendle and Nadine Lüchinger
“The Dress” (2020) – Tadeusz Łysiak and Maciej Ślesicki
“The Long Goodbye” (2020) – Aneil Karia and Riz Ahmed
“On My Mind” (2021) – Martin Strange-Hansen and Kim Magnusson
“Please Hold” (2020) – K.D. Dávila and Levin Menekse

Prediction: “The Long Goodbye”
Preference: “The Long Goodbye”

Best Animated Short Film
“Affairs of the Art” (2021) – Joanna Quinn and Les Mills
“Bestia” (2021) – Hugo Covarrubias and Tevo Díaz
“BoxBallet” (2021) – Anton Dyako
“Robin Robin” (2021) – Dan Ojari and Mikey Please
“The Windshield Wiper” (2021) – Alberto Mielgo and Leo Sanchez

Prediction: “Robin Robin”
Preference: “The Windshield Wiper”

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1 Response to My Prediction on the 94th Academy Awards

  1. Ironymous says:

    If I’m correct, you correctly predicted the winners for all the categories except the last. And even there, your preference turned out to be a winner. Truly outstanding. Must have watched most of them to get it correct. If not, hats off to your guesswork. I have watched only Dune, Don’t Look Up, Spider Man: No Way Home, Shang-Chi and The Legend of The Ten Rings and Nightmare Alley and The Hand of God (most disappointing). Not really looking forward to any other although Drive My Car has been in my watchlist for long.

    SC: Thanks, but I only followed the developing consensus.

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