My Prediction on the 95th Academy Awards

Again, we are coming to the end of another Oscar season as things get a bit better than before in our world. The COVID-19 pandemic seems to be becoming a mere part of the 21st century history, and I cannot help but notice that some people do not care much about wearing mask inside or outside. As a guy who unfortunately got infected with the virus once early in last, I am more cautious than those people, but I do often feel more urge to stop wearing mask, and I really hope for the arrival of the day where I can feel safe enough anywhere without wearing mask.

In the meantime, compared to the rather uneventful Oscar season of last year, this Oscar season turns out to be a lot more exciting than expected. When “Everything Everywhere All at Once” was released several months ago, it did not look like a big Best Picture Oscar contender, but, what do you know, it is now an almost unstoppable front runner at present, and the question is how many awards it will actually take besides the Best Picture award. In contrast, most of the other categories including no less than three acting categories are full of uncertainty, and that is certainly quite nail-biting to say the least. Will Michelle Yeoh be the first Asian Best Actress Oscar winner in the Oscar history? Will “Everything Everywhere All at Once” actually sweep nearly all of the acting categories? And will Brendon Fraser’s rising narrative be really strong enough to beat his cheap competitor Austin Butler’s?

I really have no definite idea, folks, but I still do my Oscar prediction just for fun, and you may outguess me in more than one category. To be frank with you, since I began this in 2007, I have never been entirely correct in my prediction, but my prediction of last year showed me that I prefer to be wrong mainly for surprise and excitement. In that year, I was correct in all but one category, and that was certainly the most boring Oscar experience I have ever had. Regardless of whatever will happen on March 12nd at the Dolby Theatre in Los Angeles, I hope I will not be bored like that at least.

Best Picture
All Quiet on the Western Front” (2022) – Malte Grunert
Avatar: The Way of Water” (2022) – James Cameron and Jon Landau
The Banshees of Inisherin” (2022) – Graham Broadbent, Peter Czernin, and Martin McDonagh
Elvis” (2022) – Baz Luhrmann, Catherine Martin, Gail Berman, Patrick McCormick, and Schuyler Weiss
Everything Everywhere All at Once” (2022) – Daniel Kwan, Daniel Scheinert, and Jonathan Wang
The Fabelmans” (2022) – Kristie Macosko Krieger, Steven Spielberg, and Tony Kushner
Tár” (2022) – Todd Field, Alexandra Milchan, and Scott Lambert
Top Gun: Maverick” (2022) – Tom Cruise, Christopher McQuarrie, David Ellison, and Jerry Bruckheimer
Triangle of Sadness” (2022) – Erik Hemmendorff and Philippe Bober
Women Talking” (2022) – Dede Gardner, Jeremy Kleiner, and Frances McDormand

After winning PGA, DGA, SAG, and WGA, “Everything Everything All at Once” proves to be the front runner to beat, and it does not look like any other nominee possibly can ruin its march toward Oscar. Considering its big victory at BAFTA, “All Quiet on the Western Front” may pull an upset, but its chance has been getting decreased day by day.

Prediction: “Everything Everywhere All at Once”
Preference: “Everything Everywhere All at Once”

Best Actor
Austin Butler – “Elvis” (2022)
Colin Farrell – “The Banshees of Inisherin” (2022)
Brendan Fraser – “The Whale” (2022)
Paul Mescal – “Aftersun” (2022)
Bill Nighy – “Living” (2022)

After winning Golden Globe and BAFTA, Austin Butler seems to be the main front runner to beat, but Brendan Fraser is chasing after him very closely after winning Critic’s Choice and SAG. As far as I have observed, there is enough momentum for welcoming Fraser’s big comeback performance, so I take some risk here, while also hoping for my top pick, Colin Farrell, to win somehow.

Prediction: Brendan Fraser
Preference: Colin Farrell

Best Actress
Cate Blanchett – “Tár” (2022)
Ana de Armas – “Blonde” (2022)
Andrea Riseborough – “To Leslie” (2022)
Michelle Williams – “The Fabelmans” (2022)
Michelle Yeoh – “Everything Everywhere All at Once” (2022)

This category is also quite tricky. After winning Golden Globe, Critic’s Choice, and BAFTA, Cate Blanchett, who gives us another phenomenal performance to cherish, seemed to be the front runner to beat, but Michelle Yeoh strikes back with winning SAG, and her momentum has been rising day by day since that. I think Yeoh, who is equally memorable in her tour-de-force performance, will win in the end.

Prediction: Michelle Yeoh
Preference: Michelle Yeoh

Best Supporting Actor
Brendan Gleeson – “The Banshees of Inisherin” (2022)
Brian Tyree Henry – “Causeway” (2022)
Judd Hirsch – “The Fabelmans” (2022)
Barry Keoghan – “The Banshees of Inisherin” (2022)
Ke Huy Quan – “Everything Everywhere All at Once” (2022)

After winning SAG, Critics’ Choice, and Golden Globe besides a heap of awards from critics, Key Huy Quan has been an indomitable nominee, and he surely deserves the award, though I must say that the four other nominees are also pretty stellar to say the least.

Prediction: Ke Huy Quan
Preference: Ke Huy Quan

Best Supporting Actress
Angela Bassett – “Black Panther: Wakanda Forever” (2022)
Hong Chau – “The Whale” (2022)
Kerry Condon – “The Banshees of Inisherin” (2022)
Jamie Lee Curtis – “Everything Everywhere All at Once” (2022)
Stephanie Hsu – “Everything Everywhere All at Once” (2022)

I will do some calculation here. In case of Hong Chau and Stephanie Hsu, there has not been much chance from the start. In case of Angela Bassett, she seemed to be having the biggest chance after winning the Golden Globe and Critic’s choice, but then Kerry Condon won BAFTA, and then Jamie Lee Curtis won SAG. I think 1) “Black Panther: Wakanda Forever” is not popular enough compared to its predecessor and 2) there is not much momentum for Condon despite a number of awards from critics. Therefore, I will bet on Jamie Lee Curtis.

Prediction: Jamie Lee Curtis
Preference: Stephanie Hsu

Best Director
Martin McDonagh – “The Banshees of Inisherin” (2022)
Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert – “Everything Everywhere All at Once” (2022)
Steven Spielberg – “The Fabelmans” (2022)
Todd Field – “Tár” (2022)
Ruben Östlund – “Triangle of Sadness” (2022)

You can safely bet on Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert, you know.

Prediction: Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert
Preference: Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert

Best Original Screenplay
“The Banshees of Inisherin” (2022) – Martin McDonagh
“Everything Everywhere All at Once” (2022) – Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert
“The Fabelmans” (2022) – Steven Spielberg and Tony Kushner
“Tár” (2022) – Todd Field
“Triangle of Sadness” (2022) – Ruben Östlund

This category has been a toss-up between “Everything Everywhere All at Once” and “The Banshees of Inisherin”, and I pick the latter.

Prediction: “The Banshees of Inisherin”
Preference: “Everything Everywhere All at Once”

Best Adapted Screenplay
“All Quiet on the Western Front” (2022) – Edward Berger, Lesley Paterson, and Ian Stokell; based on the novel by Erich Maria Remarque
Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery” (2022) – Rian Johnson; based on characters created by Johnson and the film Knives Out
“Living” (2022) – Kazuo Ishiguro; based on the original motion picture screenplay Ikiru by Akira Kurosawa, Shinobu Hashimoto, and Hideo Oguni
“Top Gun: Maverick” (2022) – Screenplay by Ehren Kruger, Eric Warren Singer, and Christopher McQuarrie; Story by Peter Craig and Justin Marks; based on the film Top Gun written by Jim Cash and Jack Epps Jr.
“Women Talking” (2022) – Sarah Polley; based on the novel by Miriam Toews

I will bet on “Women Talking”, but watch out for “All Quiet on the Western Front”

Prediction: “Women Talking”
Preference: “Women Talking”

Best Film Editing
“The Banshees of Inisherin” (2022) – Mikkel E. G. Nielsen
“Elvis” (2022) – Matt Villa and Jonathan Redmond
“Everything Everywhere All at Once” (2022) – Paul Rogers
“Tár” (2022) – Monika Willi
“Top Gun: Maverick” (2022) – Eddie Hamilton

I will go with “Everything Everywhere All at Once”, but watch out for “Top Gun: Maverick”

Prediction: “Everything Everywhere All at Once”
Preference: “Top Gun: Maverick”

Best Cinematography
“All Quiet on the Western Front” (2022) – James Friend
Bardo, False Chronicle of a Handful of Truths” (2022) – Darius Khondji
“Elvis” (2022) – Mandy Walker
Empire of Light” (2022) – Roger Deakins
“Tár” (2022) – Florian Hoffmeister

So far, “All Quiet on the Western Front” has been the front runner to beat, so…

Prediction: “All Quiet on the Western Front”
Preference: “Tár”

Best Original Score
“All Quiet on the Western Front” (2022) – Volker Bertelmann
Babylon” (2022) – Justin Hurwitz
“The Banshees of Inisherin” (2022) – Carter Burwell
“Everything Everywhere All at Once” (2022) – Son Lux
“The Fabelmans” (2022) – John Williams

Which one is the most prominent on the soundtrack?

Prediction: “Babylon”
Preference: “The Fabelmans”

Best Original Song
“Applause” from “Tell It Like a Woman” (2022) – Music and lyrics by Diane Warren
“Hold My Hand” from “Top Gun: Maverick” (2022) – Music and lyrics by Lady Gaga and BloodPop
“Lift Me Up” from “Black Panther: Wakanda Forever” (2022) – Music by Tems, Rihanna, Ryan Coogler, and Ludwig Göransson; Lyrics by Tems and Ryan Coogler
“Naatu Naatu” from “RRR” (2022) – Music by M. M. Keeravani; Lyrics by Chandrabose
“This Is a Life” from “Everything Everywhere All at Once” (2022) – Music by Ryan Lott, David Byrne, and Mitski; Lyrics by Ryan Lott and David Byrne

This award will definitely go to “RRR”

Prediction: “Naatu Naatu”
Preference: “Naatu Naatu”

Best Production Design
“All Quiet on the Western Front” (2022) – Production Design: Christian M. Goldbeck; Set Decoration: Ernestine Hipper
“Avatar: The Way of Water” (2022) – Production Design: Dylan Cole and Ben Procter; Set Decoration: Vanessa Cole
“Babylon” (2022) – Production Design: Florencia Martin; Set Decoration: Anthony Carlino
“Elvis” (2022) – Production Design: Catherine Martin and Karen Murphy; Set Decoration: Bev Dunn
“The Fabelmans” (2022) – Production Design: Rick Carter; Set Decoration: Karen O’Hara

“Babylon” is the most impressive one, but who knows?

Prediction: “Babylon”
Preference: “Babylon”

Best Costume Design
“Babylon” (2022) – Mary Zophres
“Black Panther: Wakanda Forever” (2022) – Ruth Carter
“Elvis” (2022) – Catherine Martin
“Everything Everywhere All at Once” (2022) – Shirley Kurata
Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris” (2022) – Jenny Beavan

I will take some risk with “Black Panther: Wakanda Forever”, but watch out for “Elvis”.

Prediction: “Black Panther: Wakanda Forever”
Preference: “Black Panther: Wakanda Forever”

Best Makeup and Hairstyling
“All Quiet on the Western Front” (2022) – Heike Merker and Linda Eisenhamerová
The Batman” (20212 – Naomi Donne, Mike Marino, and Mike Fontaine
“Black Panther: Wakanda Forever” (2022) – Camille Friend and Joel Harlow
“Elvis” (2022) – Mark Coulier, Jason Baird, and Aldo Signoretti
“The Whale” (2022) – Adrien Morot, Judy Chin, and Anne Marie Bradley

“The Whale” may win, but “Elvis” also has considerable chance to win here.

Prediction: “The Whale”
Preference: “Black Panther: Wakanda Forever”

Best Sound
“All Quiet on the Western Front” (2022) – Viktor Prášil, Frank Kruse, Markus Stemler, Lars Ginzel, and Stefan Korte
“Avatar: The Way of Water” (2022) – Julian Howarth, Gwendolyn Yates Whittle, Dick Bernstein, Christopher Boyes, Gary Summers, and Michael Hedges
“The Batman” (2022) – Stuart Wilson, William Files, Douglas Murray, and Andy Nelson
“Elvis” (2022) – David Lee, Wayne Pashley, Andy Nelson, and Michael Keller
“Top Gun: Maverick” (2022) – Mark Weingarten, James H. Mather, Al Nelson, Chris Burdon, and Mark Taylor

Don’t bet on any other nominee besides “Top Gun: Maverick”.

Prediction: “Top Gun: Maverick”
Preference: “Top Gun: Maverick”

Best Visual Effects
“All Quiet on the Western Front” (2022) – Frank Petzold, Viktor Müller, Markus Frank, and Kamil Jafar
“Avatar: The Way of Water” (2022) – Joe Letteri, Richard Baneham, Eric Saindon, and Daniel Barrett
“The Batman” (2022) – Dan Lemmon, Russell Earl, Anders Langlands, and Dominic Tuohy
“Black Panther: Wakanda Forever” (2022) – Geoffrey Baumann, Craig Hammack, R. Christopher White, and Dan Sudick
“Top Gun: Maverick” (2022) – Ryan Tudhope, Seth Hill, Bryan Litson, and Scott R. Fisher

Of course, the answer is….

Prediction: “Avatar: The Way of Water”
Preference: “Avatar: The Way of Water”

Best Animated Feature Film
Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio” (2022) – Guillermo del Toro, Mark Gustafson, Gary Ungar, and Alex Bulkley
Marcel the Shell with Shoes On” (2022) – Dean Fleischer Camp, Elisabeth Holm, Andrew Goldman, Caroline Kaplan, and Paul Mezey
Puss in Boots: The Last Wish” (2022) – Joel Crawford and Mark Swift
The Sea Beast” (2022) – Chris Williams and Jed Schlanger
Turning Red” (2022) – Domee Shi and Lindsey Collins

“Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio” will definitely win the award, you know.

Prediction: “Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio”
Preference: “Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio”

Best International Feature Film
“All Quiet on the Western Front” (2022) (Germany) – directed by Edward Berger
Argentina, 1985” (2022) (Argentina) – directed by Santiago Mitre
Close” (2022) (Belgium) – directed by Lukas Dhont
EO” (2022) (Poland) – directed by Jerzy Skolimowski
The Quiet Girl” (2022) (Ireland) – directed by Colm Bairéad

This is where “All Quiet on the Western Front” will surely win, so…

Prediction: “All Quiet on the Western Front”
Preference: “EO”

Best Documentary Feature
All That Breathes” (2022) – Shaunak Sen, Aman Mann, and Teddy Leifer
All the Beauty and the Bloodshed” (2022) – Laura Poitras, Howard Gertler, John Lyons, Nan Goldin, and Yoni Golijov
Fire of Love” (2022) – Sara Dosa, Shane Boris, and Ina Fichman
“A House Made of Splinters” (2022) – Simon Lereng Wilmont and Monica Hellström
Navalny” (2022) – Daniel Roher, Odessa Rae, Diane Becker, Melanie Miller, and Shane Boris

I think “Navalny” is the one to beat.

Prediction: “Navalny”
Preference: “Fire of Love”

Best Documentary Short Subject
“The Elephant Whisperers” (2022) – Kartiki Gonsalves and Guneet Monga
“Haulout” (2022) – Evgenia Arbugaeva and Maxim Arbugaev
“How Do You Measure a Year?” (2021)– Jay Rosenblatt
“The Martha Mitchell Effect” (2022) – Anne Alvergue and Beth Levison
“Stranger at the Gate” (2022) – Joshua Seftel and Conall Jones

Prediction: “The Elephant Whisperers”
Preference: “Stranger at the Gate”

Best Live Action Short Film
“An Irish Goodbye” (2022) – Tom Berkely and Ross White
“Ivalu” (2022) – Anders Walter and Rebecca Pruzan
“Le pupille” (2022) – Alice Rohrwacher and Alfonso Cuarón
“Night Ride” (2020)– Eirik Tveiten and Gaute Lid Larssen
“The Red Suitcase” (2022) – Cyrus Neshvad

Prediction: “Le pupille”
Preference: “Le pupille”

Best Animated Short Film
“The Boy, the Mole, the Fox and the Horse” (2022) – Charlie Mackesy and Matthew Freud
“The Flying Sailor” (2022) – Wendy Tilby and Amanda Forbis
“Ice Merchants” (2022) – João Gonzalez and Bruno Caetano
“My Year of Dicks” (2022) – Sara Gunnarsdóttir and Pamela Ribon
“An Ostrich Told Me the World Is Fake and I Think I Believe It” (2021) – Lachlan Pendragon

Prediction: “The Boy, the Mole, the Fox and the Horse”
Preference: “My Year of Dicks”

This entry was posted in Movies. Bookmark the permalink.

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in: Logo

You are commenting using your account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.