So here we arrive again. Another Oscar season is almost over, and I and many of you are still guessing again and again on which movie will eventually win at the upcoming ceremony to be held in LA on March 15th. Last year, I thought the Oscar race became more unpredictable than before, but, what do you know, this year turns out to be much more chaotic compared to last year.

So far, the Best Picture race has been narrowed down to the competition between two favorite films of mine in 2025. As sweeping a number of major American film critics associations and then several substantial industrial awards including PGA, DGA, and WGA, Paul Thomas Anderon’s “One Battle After Another” seems to be the front runner, but it has been steadily threatened by Ryan Coogler’s “Sinners”, which incidentally garnered the recording-breaking 16 nominations and has gained more momentum as an underdog to defeat the former – especially after winning the Best Ensemble award at the Actors Award ceremony (It is formerly the SAG award, you know).

And then there are many possibilities of upset here and there among many other categories. Except Best Actress Oscar, things have been going up and down to our confusion in the acting categories, and even some of the technical categories turn out to be less predictable than before, though you should not bet anything against “KPop Demon Hunters”. As far as I remember, I have been usually wrong in around 5 or 6 categories during last 20 years, but I have a growing feeling that my prediction can be a bit more inaccurate than before.

Anyway, here is my Oscar prediction of this year, and we will see how much I am actually wrong in my inconsequential guessing. As balancing it between common sense and some gut feeling, I have been often more accurate than many of my friends and acquaintances, but this winning streak of mine will be finally stopped in this year.

Best Picture
“Bugonia” (2025) – Ed Guiney, Andrew Lowe, Yorgos Lanthimos, Emma Stone, and Lars Knudsen
“F1” (2025) – Chad Oman, Brad Pitt, Dede Gardner, Jeremy Kleiner, Joseph Kosinski, and Jerry Bruckheimer
“Frankenstein” (2025) – Guillermo del Toro, J. Miles Dale, and Scott Stuber
“Hamnet” (2025) – Liza Marshall, Pippa Harris, Nicolas Gonda, Steven Spielberg, and Sam Mendes
“Marty Supreme” (2025) – Eli Bush, Ronald Bronstein, Josh Safdie, Anthony Katagas, and Timothée Chalamet
“One Battle After Another” (2025) – Adam Somner, Sara Murphy, and Paul Thomas Anderson
“The Secret Agent” (2025) – Emilie Lesclaux
“Sentimental Value” (2025) – Maria Ekerhovd and Andrea Berentsen Ottmar
“Sinners” (2025) – Zinzi Coogler, Sev Ohanian, and Ryan Coogler
“Train Dreams” (2025) – Marissa McMahon, Teddy Schwarzman, Will Janowitz, Ashley Schlaifer, and Michael Heimler

So far, “Sinners” seems to have more chance than expected, but I still think “One Battle After Another” eventually win in this category.

Will Win: “One Battle After Another”
Should Win: “One Battle After Another”

Best Actor
Timothée Chalamet – “Marty Supreme” (2025)
Leonardo DiCaprio – “One Battle After Another” (2025)
Ethan Hawke – “Blue Moon” (2025)
Michael B. Jordan – “Sinners” (2025)
Wagner Moura – “The Secret Agent” (2025)

Sorry, Timothée Chalamet, you have promoted yourself and your movie too much to many of voters, as shown from your recent failure to win at the BAFTA and the Actors Award. In case of Leonardo DiCaprio and Ethan Hawke, getting nominated is a reward for both of them, and the same can be said about Wagner Moura. So, I think Michael B. Jordan will eventually win, considering a lot of enthusiasm shown to when he won the Actors Award a few weeks ago.

Will Win: Michael B. Jordan
Should Win: Ethan Hawke

Best Actress
Jessie Buckley – “Hamnet” (2025)
Rose Byrne – “If I Had Legs I’d Kick You” (2025)
Kate Hudson – “Song Sung Blue” (2025)
Renate Reinsve – “Sentimental Value” (2025)
Emma Stone – “Bugonia” (2025)

Don’t bet anything against Jesse Buckley, who won at Golden Globe, Critics Choice, BAFTA, and the Actors Awards.

Will Win: Jessie Buckley
Should Win: Rose Byrne

Best Supporting Actor
Benicio del Toro – “One Battle After Another” (2025)
Jacob Elordi – “Frankenstein” (2025)
Delroy Lindo – “Sinners” (2025)
Sean Penn – “One Battle After Another” (2025)
Stellan Skarsgård – “Sentimental Value” (2025)

At first, Benicio del Toro swept a number of major film critics associations, but then Jacob Elorid won at the Critics Choice award, and then Stellan Skarsgård won at the Golden Globe award, and then Sean Penn won at BAFTA and the Actors Awards. Considering how BAFTA and the Actors Awards have been reliable for many years, I think Penn will eventually win his third Oscar, but watch out for Delroy Lindo, who has been a prominent dark horse nominee during last several weeks.

Will Win: Sean Penn
Should Win: Benicio del Toro

Best Supporting Actress
Elle Fanning – “Sentimental Value” (2025)
Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas – “Sentimental Value” (2025)
Amy Madigan – “Weapons” (2025)
Wunmi Mosaku – “Sinners” (2025)
Teyana Taylor – “One Battle After Another” (2025)

While Elle Fanning and Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas are just happy to be there, Teyana Taylor won at the Golden Globe, and then Wunmi Mosaku won at the BAFTA, and then Amy Madigan won at the Actors Award. I guess Madigan, who was deliciously diabolical in “Weapons”, will eventually become the winner.

Will Win: Amy Madigan
Should Win: Teyana Taylor

Best Director
Chloé Zhao – “Hamnet” (2025)
Josh Safdie – “Marty Supreme” (2025)
Paul Thomas Anderson – “One Battle After Another” (2025)
Joachim Trier – “Sentimental Value” (2025)
Ryan Coogler – “Sinners” (2025)

Yes, the time has come for Paul Thomas Anderson, but I will be thrilled even if Ryan Coogler wins instead.

Will Win: Paul Thomas Anderson
Should Win: Paul Thomas Anderson

Best Original Screenplay
“Blue Moon” (2025) – Robert Kaplow
“It Was Just an Accident” (2025) – Jafar Panahi; in collaboration with Nader Saïvar, Shadmehr Rastin, and Mehdi Mahmoudian
“Marty Supreme” (2025) – Ronald Bronstein and Josh Safdie
“Sentimental Value” (2025) – Eskil Vogt and Joachim Trier
“Sinners” (2025) – Ryan Coogler

And this one is for Coogler, you know.

Will Win: “Sinners”
Should Win: “Sinners”

Best Adapted Screenplay
“Bugonia” (2025) – Will Tracy; based on the film Save the Green Planet! by Jang Joon-hwan
“Frankenstein” (2025) – Guillermo del Toro; based on the novel by Mary Shelley
“Hamnet” (2025) – Chloé Zhao and Maggie O’Farrell; based on the novel by Maggie O’Farrell
“One Battle After Another” (2025) – Paul Thomas Anderson; based on the novel Vineland by Thomas Pynchon
“Train Dreams” (2025) – Clint Bentley and Greg Kwedar; based on the novella by Denis Johnson

And another one for Anderson..

Will Win: “One Battle After Another”
Should Win: “One Battle After Another”

Best Cinematography
“Frankenstein” (2025) – Dan Laustsen
“Marty Supreme” (2025) – Darius Khondji
“One Battle After Another” (2025) – Michael Bauman
“Sinners” (2025) – Autumn Durald Arkapaw
“Train Dreams” (2025) – Adolpho Veloso

All of these nominees are excellent, but the award will eventually go to “One Battle After Another”, though “Sinners” and “Train Dreams” have a fair chance for upset.

Will Win: “One Battle After Another”
Should Win: “Sinners”

Best Film Editing
“F1” (2025) – Stephen Mirrione
“Marty Supreme” (2025) – Ronald Bronstein and Josh Safdie
“One Battle After Another” (2025) – Andy Jurgensen
“Sentimental Value” (2025) – Olivier Bugge Coutté
“Sinners” (2025) – Michael P. Shawver

Another almost definite win for “One Battle After Another”

Will Win: “One Battle After Another”
Should Win: “Sinners”

Best Original Score
“Bugonia” (2025) – Jerskin Fendrix
“Frankenstein” (2025) – Alexandre Desplat
“Hamnet” (2025) – Max Richter
“One Battle After Another” (2025) – Jonny Greenwood
“Sinners” (2025) – Ludwig Göransson

“Sinners” will surely win here.

Will Win: “Sinners”
Should Win: “Sinners”

Best Original Song
“Dear Me” from “Diane Warren: Relentless” (2025) – Music and lyrics by Diane Warren
“Golden” from “KPop Demon Hunters” (2025) – Music and lyrics by Ejae, Mark Sonnenblick, 24, Ido, and Teddy Park
“I Lied to You” from “Sinners” (2025) – Music and lyrics by Raphael Saadiq and Ludwig Göransson
“Sweet Dreams of Joy” from “Viva Verdi!” (2024) – Music and lyrics by Nicholas Pike
“Train Dreams” from “Train Dreams” (2025) – Music by Nick Cave and Bryce Dessner; lyrics by Nick Cave

“KPop Demon Hunters”, of course

Will Win: “Golden”
Should Win: “I Lied to You”

Best Production Design
“Frankenstein” (2025) – Production Design: Tamara Deverell; Set Decoration: Shane Vieau
“Hamnet” (2025) – Production Design: Fiona Crombie; Set Decoration: Alice Felton
“Marty Supreme” (2025) – Production Design: Jack Fisk; Set Decoration: Adam Willis
“One Battle After Another” (2025) – Production Design: Florencia Martin; Set Decoration: Anthony Carlino
“Sinners” (2025) – Production Design: Hannah Beachler; Set Decoration: Monique Champagne

“Frankenstein”, definitely

Will Win: “Frankenstein”
Should Win: “Frankenstein”

Best Costume Design
“Avatar: Fire and Ash” (2025) – Deborah L. Scott
“Frankenstein” (2025) – Kate Hawley
“Hamnet” (2025) – Malgosia Turzanska
“Marty Supreme” (2025) – Miyako Bellizzi
“Sinners” (2025) – Ruth E. Carter

Pretty much same here…

Will Win: “Frankenstein”
Should Win: “Frankenstein”

Best Makeup and Hairstyling
“Frankenstein” (2025) – Mike Hill, Jordan Samuel, and Cliona Furey
“Kokuho” (2025) – Kyoko Toyokawa, Naomi Hibino, and Tadashi Nishimatsu
“Sinners” (2025) – Ken Diaz, Mike Fontaine, and Shunika Terry
“The Smashing Machine” (2025 – Kazu Hiro, Glen Griffin, and Bjoern Rehbein
“The Ugly Stepsister” (2025) – Thomas Foldberg and Anne Cathrine Sauerberg

No surprise here, folks…

Will Win: “Frankenstein”
Should Win: “Frankenstein”

Best Sound
“F1” (2025) – Gareth John, Al Nelson, Gwendolyn Yates Whittle, Gary A. Rizzo, and Juan Peralta
“Frankenstein” (2025) – Greg Chapman, Nathan Robitaille, Nelson Ferreira, Christian Cooke, and Brad Zoern
“One Battle After Another” (2025) – José Antonio García, Christopher Scarabosio, and Tony Villaflor
“Sinners” (2025) – Chris Welcker, Benjamin A. Burtt, Felipe Pacheco, Brandon Proctor, and Steve Boeddeker
“Sirāt” (2025) – Amanda Villavieja, Laia Casanovas, and Yasmina Praderas

Which one is the loudest?

Will Win: “F1”
Should Win: “Sirāt”

Best Casting
“Hamnet” (2025) – Nina Gold
“Marty Supreme” (2025) – Jennifer Venditti
“One Battle After Another” (2025) – Cassandra Kulukundis
“The Secret Agent” (2025) – Gabriel Domingues
“Sinners” (2025) – Francine Maisler

Another one for “Sinners”…

Will Win: “Sinners”
Should Win: “Sinners”

Best Visual Effects
“Avatar: Fire and Ash” (2025) – Joe Letteri, Richard Baneham, Eric Saindon, and Daniel Barrett
“F1” (2025) – Ryan Tudhope, Nicolas Chevallier, Robert Harrington, and Keith Dawson
“Jurassic World Rebirth” (2025) – David Vickery, Stephen Aplin, Charmaine Chan, and Neil Corbould
“The Lost Bus” (2025) – Charlie Noble, David Zaretti, Russell Bowen, and Brandon K. McLaughlin
“Sinners” (2025) – Michael Ralla, Espen Nordahl, Guido Wolter, and Donnie Dean

Isn’t it obvious?

Will Win: “Avatar: Fire and Ash”
Should Win: “The Lost Bus”

Best Animated Feature
“Arco” (2025) – Ugo Bienvenu, Félix de Givry, Sophie Mas, and Natalie Portman
“Elio” (2025) – Madeline Sharafian, Domee Shi, Adrian Molina, and Mary Alice Drumm
“KPop Demon Hunters” (2025) – Maggie Kang, Chris Appelhans, and Michelle L.M. Wong
“Little Amélie or the Character of Rain” (2025) – Maïlys Vallade, Liane-Cho Han, Nidia Santiago, and Henri Magalon
“Zootopia 2” (2025) – Jared Bush, Byron Howard, and Yvett Merino

“KPop Demon Hunters”, of course.

Will Win: “KPop Demon Hunters”
Should Win: “Zootopia 2”

Best International Feature Film
“It Was Just an Accident” (2025) (France) in Persian and Azerbaijani – directed by Jafar Panahi
“The Secret Agent” (2025) (Brazil) in Portuguese and German – directed by Kleber Mendonça Filho
“Sentimental Value” (2025) (Norway) in Norwegian, Swedish, and English – directed by Joachim Trier
“Sirāt” (2025) (Spain) in Spanish, French, and Arabic – directed by Oliver Laxe
“The Voice of Hind Rajab” (2025) (Tunisia) in Arabic – directed by Kaouther Ben Hania

All of them are quite stellar to say the least, so I will not complain at all about the eventual winner, though I will pick “Sentimental Choice” if I have to.

Will Win: “Sentimental Value”
Should Win: “Sentimental Value”

Best Documentary Feature Film
“The Alabama Solution” (2025) – Andrew Jarecki and Charlotte Kaufman
“Come See Me in the Good Light” (2025) – Ryan White, Jessica Hargrave, Tig Notaro, and Stef Willen
“Cutting Through Rocks” (2025) – Sara Khaki and Mohammadreza Eyni
“Mr Nobody Against Putin” (2025) – David Borenstein, Pavel Talankin, Helle Faber, and Alžběta Karásková
“The Perfect Neighbor” (2025) – Geeta Gandbhir, Alisa Payne, Nikon Kwantu, and Sam Bisbee

“The Perfect Neighbor” seems to be the front runner, but watch out for “Mr Nobody Against Putin”, which recently won a BAFTA award.

Will Win: “The Perfect Neighbor”
Should Win: “The Alabama Solution”

Best Documentary Short Film
“All the Empty Rooms” (2025) – Joshua Seftel and Conall Jones
“Armed Only with a Camera: The Life and Death of Brent Renaud” (2025) – Craig Renaud and Juan Arredondo
“Children No More: “Were and Are Gone”” (2025) – Hilla Medalia and Sheila Nevins
“The Devil Is Busy” (2024) – Christalyn Hampton and Geeta Gandbhir
“Perfectly a Strangeness” (2024) – Alison McAlpine

Will Win: “All the Empty Rooms”
Should Win: “The Devil Is Busy”

Best Live Action Short Film
“Butcher’s Stain” (2025) – Meyer Levinson-Blount and Oron Caspi
“A Friend of Dorothy” (2025) – Lee Knight and James Dean
“Jane Austen’s Period Drama” (2024) – Julia Aks and Steve Pinder
“The Singers” (2025) – Sam A. Davis and Jack Piatt
“Two People Exchanging Saliva” (2024) – Alexandre Singh and Natalie Musteata

Will Win: “A Friend of Dorothy”
Should Win: “Two People Exchanging Saliva”

Best Animated Short Film
“Butterfly” (2025) – Florence Miailhe and Ron Dyens
“Forevergreen” (2025) – Nathan Engelhardt and Jeremy Spears
“The Girl Who Cried Pearls” (2025) – Chris Lavis and Maciek Szczerbowski
“Retirement Plan” (2024) – John Kelly and Andrew Freedman
“The Three Sisters” (2025) – Konstantin Bronzit

Will Win: “Butterfly”
Should Win: “The Girl Who Cried Pearls”