I have often grumbled a bit about how the Oscar season has been predictable during the last two decades. Especially after the season got shorter and tighter around 20 years ago, it has been much easier to detect whether there will be any sudden surprise from the outcome of the ceremony, and I can only remember a couple of times where I was genuinely surprised as watching the ceremony on live TV (Remember when Tilda Swinton quite unexpectedly won her Best Supporting Actress Oscar for “Michael Clayton” in 2008?)

In case of this year, the Oscar race has been quite dramatic week by week. At first, “Anora” seemed to be a definite front runner, but then there came a considerable chance for “The Brutalist” and “Emilia Pérez” after the Golden Globe Award ceremony. However, both of them subsequently suffered each own controversy while “Anora” rose again with its resurgence in PGA, DGA, WGA, and the Critics’ Choice Awards, and now “Conclave” suddenly becomes another possible winner after showing more prominence at the BAFTA Award ceremony and then winning the Best Ensemble award at the SAG Award ceremony a few days ago.

So, what will happen during the upcoming Oscar ceremony on March 2nd? As usual, there are a number of categories about which I am quite certain, but then there are also many other categories about which I am still scratching my head. Nevertheless, I am still having a fun with checking how much accurate or inaccurate I am in this trivial Oscar season game, and you can try to outguess me if you want, though there is no prize for that.

Best Picture
“Anora” (2024) – Alex Coco, Samantha Quan, and Sean Baker
“The Brutalist” (2024) – Nick Gordon, Brian Young, Andrew Morrison, D.J. Gugenheim, and Brady Corbet
“A Complete Unknown” (2024) – Fred Berger, James Mangold, and Alex Heineman
“Conclave” (2024) – Tessa Ross, Juliette Howell, and Michael A. Jackman
“Dune: Part Two” (2024) – Mary Parent, Cale Boyter, Tanya Lapointe, and Denis Villeneuve
“Emilia Pérez” (2024) – Pascal Caucheteux and Jacques Audiard
“I’m Still Here” (2024) – Maria Carlota Bruno and Rodrigo Teixeira
“Nickel Boys” (2024) – Dede Gardner, Jeremy Kleiner, and Joslyn Barnes
“The Substance” (2024) – Coralie Fargeat, Tim Bevan, and Eric Fellner
“Wicked” (2024) – Marc Platt

After ups and downs during last several weeks, I think the voters will choose something relatively safe, and that is “Conclave”, which has gained more momentum as the No.2 in the ongoing rase.

Will Win: “Conclave”
Should Win: “Nickel Boys”

Best Actor
Adrien Brody – “The Brutalist” (2024)
Timothée Chalamet – “A Complete Unknown” (2024)
Colman Domingo – “Sing Sing” (2023) as John “Divine G” Whitfield
Ralph Fiennes – “Conclave” (2024) as Cardinal Thomas Lawrence
Sebastian Stan – “The Apprentice” (2024) as Donald Trump

Almost everything is pointing toward Adrien Brody, but watch out a bit for Timothée Chalamet, who unexpectedly won the SAG award a few days ago.

Will Win: Adrien Brody
Should Win: Colman Domingo

Best Actress
Cynthia Erivo – “Wicked” (2024)
Karla Sofía Gascón – “Emilia Pérez” (2024)
Mikey Madison – “Anora” (2024)
Demi Moore – “The Substance” (2024)
Fernanda Torres – “I’m Still Here” (2024)

The race has been a really tight race between Mikey Madison and Demi Moore, who has a bit more chance to win the award compared to her main competitor.

Will Win: Demi Moore
Should Win: Mikey Madison

Best Supporting Actor
Yura Borisov – “Anora” (2024)
Kieran Culkin – “A Real Pain” (2024)
Edward Norton – “A Complete Unknown” (2024)
Guy Pearce – “The Brutalist” (2024)
Jeremy Strong – “The Apprentice” (2024)

As he swept Golden Globes, Critics Choice, BAFTA, and SAG, Kieran Culkin has been more unstoppable in this category.

Will Win: Kieran Culkin
Should Win: Kieran Culkin

Best Supporting Actress
Monica Barbaro – “A Complete Unknown” (2024)
Ariana Grande – “Wicked” (2024)
Felicity Jones – “The Brutalist” (2024)
Isabella Rossellini – “Conclave” (2024)
Zoe Saldaña – “Emilia Pérez” (2024)

Zoe Saldaña also garnered numerous awards just like Culkin, so…

Will Win: Zoe Saldaña
Should Win: Zoe Saldaña

Best Director
Sean Baker – “Anora” (2024)
Brady Corbet – “The Brutalist” (2024)
James Mangold – “A Complete Unknown” (2024)
Jacques Audiard – “Emilia Pérez” (2024)
Coralie Fargeat – “The Substance” (2024)

The race has been mainly between Baker and Corbet, and I think Baker will win considering his victory in DGA.

Will Win: Sean Baker
Should Win: Brady Corbet

Best Original Screenplay
“Anora” (2024) – Sean Baker
“The Brutalist” (2024) – Brady Corbet and Mona Fastvold
“A Real Pain” (2024) – Jesse Eisenberg
“September 5” (2024) – Moritz Binder and Tim Fehlbaum; co-written by Alex David
“The Substance” (2024) – Coralie Fargeat

This is where Baker will also win, I guess

Will Win: “Anora”
Should Win: “A Real Pain”

Best Adapted Screenplay
“A Complete Unknown” (2024)– James Mangold and Jay Cocks; based on the book Dylan Goes Electric! by Elijah Wald
“Conclave” (2024) – Peter Straughan; based on the novel by Robert Harris
“Emilia Pérez” (2024) – Jacques Audiard; in collaboration with Thomas Bidegain, Léa Mysius, and Nicolas Livecchi; based on the opera libretto Emilia Pérez by Jacques Audiard and the novel Écoute by Boris Razon
“Nickel Boys” (2024) – RaMell Ross and Joslyn Barnes; based on the novel The Nickel Boys by Colson Whitehead
“Sing Sing” (2023) – Screenplay by Greg Kwedar and Clint Bentley; story by Greg Kwedar, Clint Bentley, Clarence Maclin, and John “Divine G” Whitfield; based on the book The Sing Sing Follies by John H. Richardson and the play Breakin’ the Mummy’s Code by Brent Buell

This is quite easy – Don’t bet anything else besides “Conclave”

Will Win: “Conclave”
Should Win: “Conclave”

Best Cinematography
“The Brutalist” (2024) – Lol Crawley
“Dune: Part Two” (2024) – Greig Fraser
“Emilia Pérez” (2024) – Paul Guilhaume
“Maria” (2024) – Edward Lachman
“Nosferatu” (2024) – Jarin Blaschke

All of these nominees are stellar, but the award will eventually go to “The Brutalist”.

Will Win: “The Brutalist”
Should Win: “The Brutalist”

Best Film Editing
“Anora” (2024) – Sean Baker
“The Brutalist” (2024) – Dávid Jancsó
“Conclave” (2024) – Nick Emerson
“Emilia Pérez” (2024) – Juliette Welfling
“Wicked” (2024) – Myron Kerstein

Another almost definite win for “Conclave”

Will Win: “Conclave”
Should Win: “Anora”

Best Original Score
“The Brutalist” (2024) – Daniel Blumberg
“Conclave” (2024) – Volker Bertelmann
“Emilia Pérez” (2024) – Clément Ducol and Camille
“Wicked” (2024) – John Powell and Stephen Schwartz
“The Wild Robot” (2024) – Kris Bowers

“The Brutalist” will surely win here.

Will Win: “The Brutalist”
Should Win: “The Wild Robot”

Best Original Song
“El Mal” from “Emilia Pérez” (2024) – Music by Clément Ducol and Camille; lyrics by Clément Ducol, Camille, and Jacques Audiard
“The Journey” from “The Six Triple Eight” (2024) – Music and lyrics by Diane Warren
“Like a Bird” from “Sing Sing” (2023) – Music and lyrics by Abraham Alexander and Adrian Quesada
“Mi Camino” from “Emilia Pérez” (2024) – Music and lyrics by Camille and Clément Ducol
“Never Too Late” from “Elton John: Never Too Late” (2024) – Music and lyrics by Elton John, Brandi Carlile, Andrew Watt, and Bernie Taupin

The award will probably go to “El Mal”, but there is also a good chance for “The Journey”, considering Diane Warren has been nominated no less than 16 times without a win.

Will Win: “El Mal”
Should Win: “Like a Bird”

Best Production Design
“The Brutalist” (2024) – Production Design: Judy Becker; Set Decoration: Patricia Cuccia
“Conclave” (2024)– Production Design: Suzie Davies; Set Decoration: Cynthia Sleiter
“Dune: Part Two” (2024) – Production Design: Patrice Vermette; Set Decoration: Shane Vieau
“Nosferatu” (2024) – Production Design: Craig Lathrop; Set Decoration: Beatrice Brentnerová
“Wicked” (2024) – Production Design: Nathan Crowley; Set Decoration: Lee Sandales

“Wicked”, definitely

Will Win: “Wicked”
Should Win: “Dune: Part Two”

Best Costume Design
“A Complete Unknown” (2024)– Arianne Phillips
“Conclave” (2024) – Lisy Christl
“Gladiator II” (2024) – Janty Yates and Dave Crossman
“Nosferatu” (2024) – Linda Muir
“Wicked” (2024) – Paul Tazewell

Pretty much same here…

Will Win: “Wicked”
Should Win: “Wicked”

Best Makeup and Hairstyling
“A Different Man” (2024) – Mike Marino, David Presto, and Crystal Jurado
“Emilia Pérez” (2024) – Julia Floch Carbonel, Emmanuel Janvier, and Jean-Christophe Spadaccini
“Nosferatu” (2024) – David White, Traci Loader, and Suzanne Stokes-Munton
“The Substance” (2024) – Pierre-Oliver Persin, Stéphanie Guillon, and Marilyne Scarselli
“Wicked” (2024) – Frances Hannon, Laura Blount, and Sarah Nuth

This is where “The Substance” will definitely win

Will Win: “The Substance”
Should Win: “The Substance”

Best Sound
“A Complete Unknown” (2024) – Tod A. Maitland, Donald Sylvester, Ted Caplan, Paul Massey, and David Giammarco
“Dune: Part Two” (2024) – Gareth John, Richard King, Ron Bartlett, and Doug Hemphill
“Emilia Pérez” (2024) – Erwan Kerzanet, Aymeric Devoldère, Maxence Dussère, Cyril Holtz, and Niels Barletta
“Wicked” (2024) – Simon Hayes, Nancy Nugent Title, Jack Dolman, Andy Nelson, and John Marquis
“The Wild Robot” (2024) – Randy Thom, Brian Chumney, Gary A. Rizzo, and Leff Lefferts

“A Complete Unknown” has more chance because it is a musician biography drama film with several good musical performance scenes to enjoy.

Will Win: “A Complete Unknown”
Should Win: “Dune: Part Two”

Best Visual Effects
“Alien: Romulus” (2024) – Eric Barba, Nelson Sepulveda-Fauser, Daniel Macarin, and Shane Mahan
“Better Man” (2024) – Luke Millar, David Clayton, Keith Herft, and Peter Stubbs
“Dune: Part Two” (2024) – Paul Lambert, Stephen James, Rhys Salcombe, and Gerd Nefzer
“Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes” (2024) – Erik Winquist, Stephen Unterfranz, Paul Story, and Rodney Burke
“Wicked” (2024) – Pablo Helman, Jonathan Fawkner, David Shirk, and Paul Corbould

Isn’t it obvious?

Will Win: “Dune: Part 2”
Should Win: “Dune: Part 2”

Best Animated Feature
“Flow” (2024) – Gints Zilbalodis, Matīss Kaža, Ron Dyens, and Gregory Zalcman
“Inside Out 2” (2024) – Kelsey Mann and Mark Nielsen
“Memoir of a Snail” (2024) – Adam Elliot and Liz Kearney
“Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl” (2024) – Nick Park, Merlin Crossingham, and Richard Beek
“The Wild Robot” (2024) – Chris Sanders and Jeff Hermann

It has been a tight race between “The Wild Robot” and “Flow”. I think “Flow” will win in the end, though I will be also delighted if the former eventually wins.

Will Win: “Flow”
Should Win: “Flow”

Best International Feature Film
“Emilia Pérez” (2024) (France) in Spanish – directed by Jacques Audiard
“Flow” (2024) (Latvia) – directed by Gints Zilbalodis
“The Girl with the Needle” (2024) (Denmark) in Danish – directed by Magnus von Horn
“I’m Still Here” (2024) (Brazil) in Portuguese – directed by Walter Salles
“The Seed of the Sacred Fig” (2024) (Germany) in Persian – directed by Mohammad Rasoulof

This is where “I’m Still Here” will surely win, though I have not seen it yet.

Will Win: “I’m Still Here”
Should Win: “The Seed of the Sacred Fig”

Best Documentary Feature Film
“Black Box Diaries” (2024) – Shiori Itō, Eric Nyari, and Hanna Aqvilin
“No Other Land” (2024) – Basel Adra, Rachel Szor, Hamdan Ballal, and Yuval Abraham
“Porcelain War” (2024) – Brendan Bellomo, Slava Leontyev, Aniela Sidorska, and Paula DuPré Pesmen
“Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat” (2024) – Johan Grimonprez, Daan Milius, and Rémi Grellety
“Sugarcane” (2024) – Julian Brave NoiseCat, Emily Kassie, and Kellen Quinn

I have not seen it yet, but “No Other Land” will probably win.

Will Win: “No Other Land”
Should Win: “Sugarcane”

Best Documentary Short Film
“Death by Numbers” (2024) – Kim A. Snyder and Janique L. Robillard
“I Am Ready, Warden” (2024) – Smriti Mundhra and Maya Gnyp
“Incident” (2023)– Bill Morrison and Jamie Kalven
“Instruments of a Beating Heart” (2024) – Ema Ryan Yamazaki and Eric Nyari
“The Only Girl in the Orchestra” (2023) – Molly O’Brien and Lisa Remington

Will Win: “The Only Girl in the Orchestra”
Should Win: “Incident”

Best Live Action Short Film
“A Lien” (2023) – Sam Cutler-Kreutz and David Cutler-Kreutz
“Anuja” (2024) – Adam J. Graves and Suchitra Mattai
“I’m Not a Robot” (2023) – Victoria Warmerdam and Trent
“The Last Ranger” (2024) – Cindy Lee and Darwin Shaw
“The Man Who Could Not Remain Silent” (2024) – Nebojša Slijepčević and Danijel Pek

Will Win: “A Lien”
Should Win: “The Man Who Could Not Remain Silent”

Best Animated Short Film
“Beautiful Men” (2023) – Nicolas Keppens and Brecht Van Elslande
“In the Shadow of the Cypress” (2023) – Shirin Sohani and Hossein Molayemi
“Magic Candies” (2024) – Daisuke Nishio and Takashi Washio
“Wander to Wonder” (2023) – Nina Gantz and Stienette Bosklopper
“Yuck!” (2024) – Loïc Espuche and Juliette Marquet

Will Win: “Beautiful Men”
Should Win: “In the Shadow of the Cypress”